WHEN EXPERIENCE MATTERS MOST
June 26, 2008
WHEN EXPERIENCE MATTERS MOST
Joe Gavazzi & The Private Players of Pittsburgh
1-800-678-7529
One of the key factors used to handicap early season College Football is the number of returning starters on each team. Clearly, experience is an important factor in September handicapping. However, much like most other theories relying on technical handicapping, using parameters that are too “tight”, or well-defined, can skew or cloud results. More importantly it might eliminate plays that are worthy of investment. Let’s take a look at a more specific example.
Let’s assume that your returning starter theory includes the following:
1. 7+ R.S. on each side of the ball
2. A returning quarterback
3. 3+ members of the OL and DL returning
4. A 5 starter edge vs. your opponent
Looks pretty sweet, doesn’t it? And, yes, those parameters would turn you a profit most every year.
But now let’s look at some factors that might prevent our system from attaining maximum profit.
1. Our team has a new coach or systems.
2. Injuries in August or September have depleted our starters ranks.
3. Many of our retuning starters are only sophomores with one year experience.
4. Our opponent returns former starters, who didn’t play because of injury last year.
Our neat little package with it’s specific parameters doesn’t look quite so pretty anymore. How can we avoid such a trap?
As is mostly the case when relying on a technical system with well defined specific parameters, a bit of common sense and a greater overview can often prove to be beneficial.
In this situation that means further examination of the variables above.
1. Is our team operating the same offense and defense schemes with little or no change in the coaching staff.
2. Have pre-season or early season injuries thinned the ranks of the returning starters of our play on team.
3. Does the opponent have “hidden starters” that return from a year off.
Most importantly, however, is this critical factor. Remember, this situation is about PLAYING ON THE EXPERIENCED TEAM. In this handicapper’s opinion the most important, and often overlooked factor, is VETERAN STARTERS and DEPTH. For as you’ll see season after season it’s the teams laden with juniors and seniors in their 2 deep roster that most often outperform expectations in early season play. In addition, you should consider the number of letterman LOST from each team.
In conclusion, simply relying on an outdated list of returning starters will most likely leave you disappointed. You can greatly improve results by searching for teams who have continuity in coaching, veteran line play, and are loaded with upperclassmen among those receiving the most playing time.
In short, EXPERIENCE MATTERS. I know, I’m beginning my 30th year in the business. If you agree, call me at 1-800-678-7529. I’ll make you a winner. Joe Gavazzi, Private Players of Pittburgh. Or go to our website www.thegreengorilla.com