It’s not a big surprise that Tiger Woods is the favorite on the US Open golf odds but the betting lines makers don’t really have a choice. Woods is a +140 favorite for the event and that betting line indicates that he wins roughly one out of two or three US Opens.
In total, Tiger has just three US Open wins, which is an astounding feat in itself, but realistically, the odds do not correlate to how often he actually wins it.
The golf betting community needs to realize what the betting odds actually represent. Think of it as supply and demand economics versus who will actually win.
The odds makers know that Tiger Woods is going to be pounded hard by the public bettors, which means they have the make it more expensive to bet him. And since the public bettors prefer to bet him and not the other golfers, they have to offer much better value for everyone else in the field.
The next closest golfer to Woods in the odds is Phil Mickelson, who is a whopping 18-to-1 to win the US Open along with Geoff Ogilvy.
That is a massive discrepancy between the first and second place golfers on the odds, which simply means that there is plenty of value betting someone other than Tiger.
What you get with Tiger that you don’t with virtually any other golfer is the security that he’ll be in the hunt. At +140, you can bet that he’ll for sure make the cut and he’ll probably be at least within five strokes on Sunday, which means that he’s got a chance.
With some of the other sleepers that we’ve heard bandied about this weekend like Hunter Mahan or Steve Stricker, those guys could be out of the race in Round One or maybe do enough to make the cut but never really put you in contention to win.
That’s the chance you take. The price per head for the golfers in this tournament is not equal. With Woods, you are overpaying, with everyone else, you are getting good value.
Woods clearly has the best chance out of anyone to win. After all, he did win it on one leg last year. But keep in mind that golf is a rigorous game and many players will be in contention – not just Woods. Sift through the odds and look for a good underdog pick as betting the favorite in this tournament is an expensive choice.