GIQ WNBA Preview — WNBA’s Sparks to cover as 6 point home favorites as Parker returns to the LA lineup

With one month of the WNBA season in the books, it’s time for a big Sunday night Western Conference battle on NBA TV as the Los Angeles Sparks host the Phoenix Mercury.  This game marks the return of last year’s WNBA MVP Candace Parker to the lineup of the LA Sparks after taking time off for maternity and the whole WNBA world is set to tune in and see what she’s got.  I am going with the Sparks to cover the 6 point spread with a victory as they look to avenge a loss earlier this season in Phoenix.

The Mercury come into this matchup winning two of their last three games and like a lot of recent seasons, they will be bringing the league’s number one offense into the Staples Center when they face the Sparks.  Phoenix has averaged over 90 points a game on offense this season but it will be a challenge to put up these kinds of numbers against the Sparks on Sunday.  Back on June 19, the Mercury beat the Sparks in Phoenix and all five of their starters scored in double figures en route to a 9 point victory there.  However, the defense of the Mercury has been a liability for the team as they have given up an average of 89 points a game on defense this season and this includes an average of 94 points a game on the road.  In the Mercury’s most recent road game, Phoenix allowed a season-high of 109 points in Minnesota losing big to the Lynx and I feel it will not get any easier for them in LA on Sunday.  It also cannot help Phoenix that their star guard Diana Taurasi was caught drunk driving on Friday night – an incident this embarrassing does not happen often in the WNBA and is sure to have the team a little unfocused coming into LA.
Despite a 7-4 record this season, the Mercury have dropped three out of four road games and will be facing a Sparks team who have gone an easy 3-0 at home where they have blown out Detroit, Sacramento, and Seattle there by 20 points or more in each game.  Although the Sparks have been win-less on the road this season, their defense has been outstanding at home in all three games there averaging only 53 points given up per game.  Although the Mercury will clearly be the best offense that LA has faced at home, I feel the LA defense will get a big boost from the home crowd as they welcome back Candace Parker to the lineup.  Parker will not only give emotion to the team and crowd, but also gets just what the doctor ordered for her first game back in a Mercury defense that should allow her to light up the board in her return.  Last season, Parker got a double-double in all four games against Phoenix putting up big numbers for points and rebounds.   In fact, two out of the three biggest scoring efforts from Parker last season came against the Mercury with 31 and 34 points put up in those efforts.

In addition to their league-worst defense in points allowed, the Mercury are also the league’s worst team for defensive rebounds averaging 36 per game and face a Sparks team who are averaging the second best amount of offensive rebounds in the league at 35 per game.  And this is without Parker even being in the lineup this season yet!  This means that the Sparks should get some second chance opportunities on the glass and that will get some more points on the board for them.

Although you will not find many individual players from the Sparks on any statistics leaderboards, they have been getting it done as a team thanks to veteran leadership from Tina Thompson’s presence in the lineup this season.  Even with the legendary Lisa Leslie having to miss the last three games on the sidelines for LA right now, Thompson has led the team to winning two of those three games – and easily covering the spread in all three which is more important for us gamblers.  Even though it could change once Parker is back in the lineup, Thompson has led the Sparks in points and steals per game this season.  She also had a season-high of 14 rebounds against Phoenix in last month’s battle and should contribute to out-rebounding the Mercury as LA did that night.

The line for this game opened at Pinnacle Sports with the Sparks favored by 7 points and now stands at LA laying 6 here.  Although some may feel this is a premium to take the Sparks, I feel their solid defense at home and this being a revenge spot against the Mercury should more than make up for the 6 points here.  The return of Parker to the lineup is also something difficult for anyone to put a pricetag on, but you know it will make a great home team even more strong.  Between Parker and Thompson matching up well against the Mercury, and Phoenix having struggled on the road in general, I have no fear laying 6 points here.  The Sparks have also had more rest than the Mercury going into this game and will be ready for anything thrown at them.

Get your reloads in at your favorite GAMBLINGIQ sponsor sportsbook on Sunday night and take the LA Sparks minus the points!