I won Thursday, but according to the smart money, I was dumb.
I wagered one unit on Under 160 in San Antonio at Tulsa about nine hours before tipoff.
Enough early money was put on the Under to cause the total to make its smallest possible move to 159.5. As game time neared, so much money went to the Over that the total moved 3.5 points the other direction to 163, which was the closing line.
Not only had I bet against the smart money on the over, I earned an additional disadvantage for going so early. Suppose the score landed on 161 or 162 — then I would’ve lost Under 160, while the smart guys would win Under 163.
***
Four teams are unbeaten in the East. They’re pairing off Friday.
Connecticut at Atlanta
If Atlanta wins this game to go to 3-0, how much better will their stat sheet look? They’ve won two games in spite of shooting percentages of 39, 19, and 58, plus an average of 19 turnovers.
The Dream score lots of points by taking lots of shots, making some and rebounding some.
Anyone else thinking Atlanta could win the East? Perhaps Indiana lost their hunger and edge (either from sensing the window was only open last year, or from advancing age, or both). It might turn out that merely the presence of Katie Smith cures Washington’s flakiness (but then it’s so difficult for me to think that a team that lost Alana Beard is ‘the’ team). It’s weirder to think New York could go last to first, but they’ve added an All-Star team. I look at Chicago’s roster and think ‘that is a team that needs the big star’ — Dupree wasn’t a big star kind of character (she’ll be so happy in Phoenix) — that I don’t automatically think of Fowles as having emerged into big star status yet might mean they’re a year or two or 10 away.
Connecticut seems to reinvent itself every season since 2006, but I think Thibault likes his hand now. It’s logical to suppose that the Sun with a core of great young players has some growing up to do, but just like I’m thinking about Atlanta and New York, the East is going to be full of surprises, so why not now for the Sun? There are a couple of WNBA championship rings there, and some NCAA titlists. Why not?
I think Atlanta is going to keep scoring. Enough to handle -3 or -4, enough to hit 158 or 160.
New York at Washington
What’s gotten into Monique Currie, playing up to her status as a #3 draft pick and a #1 in a dispersal.
I’m reminded of the 2008 Mystics. I thought Taj McWilliams was going to be the veteran glue, but that didn’t work out. This year I think it’s Katie Smith, and I kinda like all these kids Langhorne, Harding, Coleman.
When sports bettors consider an impulse purchase at the WNBA counter, their first rule of thumb is always “bet the under”. Partly because it works — I’m 5-0 picking totals, and there were four unders — and the implied knock that women can’t get up and down.
But I bet when I see the lines, I’ll be contemplating two overs today. Washington could be -3 or -4 just like Atlanta. Probably a lesser total, like 150.
Atlanta -5 and 158.5. I well guessed the total, eh, but I predicted those numbers as numbers that would divide the bettors.
Picks: Atlanta, over
Washington -3.5 and 153.5. I did well there, too. Today for some reason I’m feeling optimistic about improved play in the East.
Picks: Washington, over
