I wrote about the WNBA all last season for Gambling IQ. My record was 93-84; putting 10 units on Phoenix -230 for the last game of the season resulted in a net gain of $46.
How will the WNBA’s contraction to 12 teams, plus the rosters’ shortening to 11 players, affect scoring?
The shorter rosters probably won’t be a factor. The 12th women were almost always DNP-CDs, while 8-11 rarely played 10 minutes.
The difference caused by the fold of the Sacramento team will be mostly felt in the East, where Monarchs scorers Nicole Powell and Kara Lawson landed. I’ll guess New York will improve — perhaps a lot — with the additions of three All-Stars: Powell, Taj McWilliams, and Cappie Pondexter. Connecticut has seven new faces, three of whom — Renee Montgomery, Tina Charles, Kelsey Griffin — are top 5 draft picks. The Sun might be a mystery all season.
I haven’t looked at the lines yet. On opening day, there’s no history from which to draw — I thought I’d imagine spreads and totals, and perhaps find a bargain after I visit the bookmaker.
Los Angeles at Phoenix
The GM poll likes Phoenix to win a third championship in four years. I agree. Candice Dupree arrived in the Pondexter deal, while Penny Taylor will play 30 games for the Mercury instead of 15 — that means Phoenix now has one of the best frontcourts in the league to complement the league’s best player, Diana Taurasi, on the perimeter.
Los Angeles is old. The Sparks have five players with nine or more years of experience — Tina Thompson is the last player left from the WNBA’s inaugural 1997 season. Ticha Penicheiro, in her 13th season, can still show why she’s the league’s all-time assists and steals leader. But it’s hard not to think that the Sparks will go as far as third-year superstar Candace Parker will take them.
Phoenix 90, Los Angeles 80? The book might give something like Phx -6 with a total of 178.
Chicago at Connecticut
The Sky weren’t very good against the spread last year. They look like a very different team. Dupree was usually relied upon too heavily; Chicago got two productive players — Shameka Christon and Cathrine Kraayeveld — in the deal, so the load will be spread around. In their first exhibition game, Kraayeveld shockingly took four shots inside the three-point line, but not surprisingly made three. If that goes on all year, the Chicago power positions — Sylvia ‘Big Syl’ Fowles plus Kraayeveld — will be tough to match up against.
Even if Connecticut uses 2010 mostly to educate rookies Tina Charles and Kelsey Griffin, and sophomore Renee Montgomery, they’re going to sell the most tickets, given the UConn ties.
Er, Chicago 66, Connecticut 65. The line might be CT -1.5 and the total 132.
Washington at Indiana
The only things I noticed about Washington in the whole off-season were that Alana Beard is out for the year, and they’re counting on 12th-year shooter Katie Smith to get lots younger. I did very well wagering on the Mystics to be a surprise last season, but I won’t be surprised if this year is a regression.
Indiana’s window for winning a title might close this year. Tamika Catchings, Katie Douglas, Tully Bevilaqua, and Tammy Sutton-Brown have 39 seasons between them. I paid no attention to the Fever at all in the preseason — if that nucleus has enough left in the tank, they’ll go to the finals again.
Indiana 72, Washington 65, perhaps. Indiana -4 and a 140 total, maybe.
Minnesota at Tulsa
The Lynx start the season without Seimone Augustus and Candice Wiggins. I don’t know why they aren’t just bad until those two return.
The Tulsa Shock. I still hate the sound of that. The league’s 2006 finalists are moved and gone. The Detroit Shock had the league’s best rebounder, Cheryl Ford, and two of its great guards in Katie Smith and Deanna Nolan. They’re ALL gone; what’s left?
This might be a rotten game to watch, and it’s sold out.
Say Tulsa 62, Minnesota 60. Line maybe Tulsa -2, total about 130. If the total really is about 130, the under here might be the play of the day.
Atlanta at San Antonio
It’s sort of amazing how the Chamique Holdsclaw drama with the Jennifer Lacy tangent overshadowed everything else in Atlanta’s preseason. The Dream will probably be a dangerous play in either direction if Holdsclaw doesn’t stay focused. They could go 6-7, 6-5, 6-2 in front if they want — Alison Bales, Erika DeSouza, Holdsclaw or Angel McCoughtry — but Bales is a different kind of question mark. If SG Armintie Price recovers her rookie of the year form and PG Shalee Lehning turns into an All-Star, the Dream could be outstanding. Just a lot of if.
I ignored San Antonio in the offseason. I knew they’d stand pretty much pat with Becky Hammon and Sophia Young, and accept contributions from everyone else. I wonder how their center position will work out — Michelle Snow replaces Ann Wauters; if Snow is consistent, it’s an upgrade. Ruth Riley is probably the best defensive backup center in the league, and rookie Jayne Appel was my favorite player in the draft. Since Hammon joined the Silver Stars and her NWBL teammate Riley, I’ve wanted the Stars to do well, but if Phoenix’s chemistry is right, it’s likely to be another bridesmaid finish for them.
San Antonio 72, Atlanta 70, wouldn’t be a surprise if they get up in the 80s. Line could be SA -3; total of 145.
OK, let’s see if the lines are up.
Book said: PHX -5 LA 175
I said: PHX -6 LA 178
So far, so good!
I don’t trust my guess of 170, though. I got killed last year when I took the under on Phoenix games. I do rather trust the 10-point margin I forecast.
Pick: Phoenix
Book said: CT -3.5 CHI 149.5
I said: CT -1.5 CHI 132
Pick: Under
Washington at Indiana is off the board in two places.
Book said: TUL -5 MIN 166.5
I said: TUL -2 MIN 130
Holy crap. What is the book seeing here that I’m not?
Pick: Under
Book said: SAS -4.5 ATL 168.5
I said: SAS -3 ATL 145
Like I said, I wouldn’t be surprised if this game gets to the 80s, and neither would the book. No picck.
