BETTING PROPHETS PLAYS
MONDAY BIG MONEY PLAYS
Ticket Number: 21599650 Wager type : Parlay Select #1 : MLB Baseball Toronto Blue Jays 7/21/2008 7:05:01 PM - (EST) Money Line -101 for Game J Litsch - R - Action R Liz - R - Action Select #2 : MLB Baseball Oakland Athletics 7/21/2008 7:10:01 PM - (EST) Team Total Points OVER 3 -115 for Game D Eveland - L must Start S Kazmir - L must Start Select #3 : MLB Baseball Cleveland Indians 7/21/2008 10:05:01 PM - (EST) Team Total Points OVER 3½ +105 for Game P Byrd - R must Start E Santana - R must Start Amount : Risking 500.00 To Win 3,313.64 USD
REPORT #2 MONDAY
SCOTT SPREITZER
MONDAY NIGHT MISMATCH! 13-2, 87% $35.00
Scott Spreitzer CASHED his lone Sunday release on the bases when the Tigers rocked the Orioles. He's now on a 13-2, 87% WINNING RUN, and he's on a white-hot, 26-9, 74% winning run, overall! Now, grab Scott's **MLB MONDAY NIGHT MISMATCH** and blowout the books serious line error! Grab it...CA$H it!
St. Louis Cardinals
MLB LINE ERROR G.O.W.! 13-2, 87% $35.00
Scott bagged his AL Mismatch Game of the Week with Detroit, just one day removed from his 25* BLOWOUT GOY win on Saturday. Want another BLOWOUT? Scott has it. It's his **LINE ERROR** BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK and now it's yours. Jump on board as Scott looks to extend runs of 13-2, 87% and 26-9, 74% winners!-
Florida Marlins
Write-ups
MLB Monday Night MISMATCH! *13-2, 87% Run!
I'm laying the price with the Cardinals on Monday. It's a big series in the NL Central, but St. Louis is in much better position to capture the opening contest. Seth McClung takes to the bump for the visitor. He's struggled as of late, forcing the Milwaukee pen to get busy early and often. McClung has lasted just 21 innings in his last four starts, combined. The one-time reliever has allowed 12 earned runs in those outings along with 34 base runners. That adds up to a four game 5.14 ERA & 1.62 WHIP. He's running into the wrong lineup today. The Redbirds have really found their bats, scoring 41 runs during their current five game winning streak, and 52 runs in their last six, overall! In fact, St. Louis slammed the Pads for nine runs on Sunday WITHOUT Albert Pujols, who had the day off. Lucky for Seth McClung. He gets to face a rested Pujols on Monday. Meanwhile, I look for Joel Pineiro to cool off the Brewer bats. He's had no trouble in his pair of starts against the Brewers, sporting a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. And, the Redbird righty is at his best when the sun goes down. Pineiro has struggled in afternoon outings, but he owns the night with a 3.52 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in nine evening starts this season. Toss in his 3.47 ERA in 10 career starts at this venue and we have the making of a Monday night Mismatch. I'm laying the price with the Cardinals. Thanks! GL! Scott
MLB LINE ERROR GAME OF THE WEEK! *26-9, 74% Run!
I'm laying the price with the Marlins on Monday. Atlanta continues to be consistently overpriced by the oddsmakers due to faulty public perception. The Braves were huge favorites over Washington Saturday and Sunday and got drubbed. The books opened Atlanta as a small dog, practically a virtual "pick-em" with the superior Florida Marlins. Atlanta is a stunningly bad 6-18 in its last 24 games against teams with a winning record. Underrated Florida is in the heart of the NL East race right now with the Mets and Phillies. That's enough by itself to like Florida at this price. I also like the chances of young Chris Volstad (who had a great debut in Los Angeles last week) to outpitch Jorge Campillo. In his last eight starts, Campillo has an ERA of 4.62. He's also had trouble pitching in hot weather. If he can't go deep, the struggling Braves bullpen will pour kerosene on the fire. Atlanta just allowed 29 runs in three games to Washington. The betting markets have been out of synch with both of these teams all season. Tonight's moneyline is ridiculous, as far as I'm concerned. The Marlins minus the price is the play Thanks! GL! Scott.
Sports Kingz
MLB
Tampa Bay -185
Angels -200
Boston -130
Cubs -130
Florida -120
EZWINNERS
MLB
2 STAR: (952) FLORIDA (-$113) over Atlanta
(Listing Volstad and Campillo)
(Risking $226 to win $200)
6:10PM Central Time
2 STAR: (958) ST. LOUIS (-$114) over Milwaukee
(Listing Pinero and McClung)
(Risking $228 to win $200)
6:05PM Central Time
2 STAR: (972) KANSAS CITY (-$107) over Detroit
(Listing Hochevar and Minor)
(Risking $214 to win $200)
7:10PM Central Time
STU FINER
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
We like the Orioles to get the job done here tonight. Don’t let a few tough days against the Tigers get you down on the Orioles pitching staff. Their bullpen has been great all season. Their bullpen has posted an ERA of just 3.49 this season.
The Orioles faced an ace yesterday in Justin Verlander. It won’t be that same type of pitcher on the mound for the Jays tonight. The Jays send their number five to the hill tonight. Their number five is a 23 year old Florida native named Jesse Litsch.
If you would like at Jesse’s numbers you would think he has pitched very well. He did come out of the gate hot but he has been getting in lots of trouble recently. Jesse went just 2.2 innings in his last start allowing seven hits and earned runs. He hasn’t won in his last three starts and doesn’t pitch well on the road. The Orioles are the play here tonight.
Baltimore Orioles (-)
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Two very hot teams collide in the Bronx tonight. The Twins and Yankees are moving down that same road. These two teams both started out the season slow but have turned it on as of late. The Twins have actually played great ball for a month. The Yankees are fresh off their home sweep of the Athletics.
When the Yankees are going well it doesn’t matter who they are facing. This is a team that still has a big time line-up. The Twins have to fly all the way to New York tonight with no off day that is not an easy thing to do.
While the Twins have played great ball as of late, most of that has been in their own ball-park. The Yankees are home and are eight games over .500 in their building, look for them to continue their modest winning streak.
New York Yankees (-)
Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays
The Athletics are a team that is fading fast folks. There are good reasons for that as well. This is a team that has been in the race all season. The problem now is the fact they just traded two of their three best pitchers. Rich Harden and Joe Blanton are now in the National League.
Oakland already has a problem scoring runs. This is a team that is ranked 23 in total runs scored. They rank 27th in batting average hitting under .250 and all season they have hit just seventy home-runs. Now you want them to go on the road and beat one of baseball’s best young pitchers? That just isn’t going to happen folks.
Scott Kazmir will pitch a big time game. We know the line is high but it should be, take the Rays they will continue their winning ways at home.
Tampa Bay Rays (-)
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
We look for the Sox to bounce back here at home. We have told you time and time again that the White Sox are one of the best teams in all of baseball. We know that everyone talks about the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs. We know people are behind the Minnesota Twins and the Milwaukee Brewers but the White Sox are just as good.
The Sox are the only team to rank in the top five in both total offense and total defense (pitching). This is a team that scores almost five runs per game. They can out-slug almost any team in all of baseball. They have hit over a 132 home runs this season already (which ranks third in baseball).
The Rangers have a great offense, we aren’t going to knock it but remember that hitting gets in streaks. Good pitching always shuts down good hitting. Take the home team and lay the wood.
Chicago White Sox (-)
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
We like the Royals and their youth folks. We like their core players a lot. You better get used to some of the names we are going to mention.
Jose Guillen, David DeJesus, Mike Aviles and Alex Gordon have led a young dynamic team to respectability. The Royals are 5-2 in their last seven contests, and that actually includes a 3-1 mark against the White Sox (they played a series before the all-star break at home against them).
Zach Miner is no one special. He is just 3-3 this season with an ERA of 4.23. In fact the Tigers are only starting him this game because they are desperate. Their pitching is in shambles. Miner has tried his hand at starting over his last few seasons. He is a .500 pitcher and he is lucky to be that. An ERA over 5.00 shows us exactly that.
Luke Hochevar was on top of his game in his last start. He won’t have to be perfect to pick up a win tonight against the Tigers. The Royals have dominated the Tigers all season and we expect the same thing to occur tonight. Take the Royals and be confident.
Kansas City Royals (-)
Cleveland Indians at LA Angels
We like the Angels to continue playing good baseball on their current home stand. Tonight the Angels send one of their best pitchers to the mound. Ervin Santana has finally put it together this season. Ervin is 11-3 on the season and has an ERA of just 3.34.
Ervin finished up the first half on a high note. On the road he went to Oakland and threw seven innings of shutout ball. Not only did he put up zeros he also struck out ten batters.
How about his last home start, you ask? He went seven innings, allowed just two runs and struck out seven guys.
Santana has always been a better pitcher at home. This 25 year old can shut down any lineup, especially a weak Cleveland line-up that is without their two top offensive threats.
LA Angels (-)
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
We know the Red Sox have struggled on the road but we feel they will get the job done tonight against a weak Seattle Mariners baseball team. Jon Lester has really been the unsung hero for the Red Sox this season. He is 7-3 on the season with an ERA of just 3.38. How many people out there would realize he has better numbers than Josh Beckett this season? That is a fact though.
Jon hasn’t had a problem pitching on the road this season. Lester has a winning mark on the road. He has allowed just four home runs all season away from Fenway park. This is a left handed pitcher in the mold of an Andy Pettitte. He features a plus fastball and a devastating curve ball.
Just two starts ago we saw him pitch a big time game at Yankee Stadium. A complete game five hit shutout against the Yankees that included eight strikeouts. The Sox will get back on track tonight and win a road game.
Boston Red Sox (-)
National League
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee has been rolling since their blockbuster trade of C.C. Sabathia. They are 5-2 in their last seven games. That also includes a winning streak of four. They have won every single game since the all-star break. That includes three wins in a row on the road.
Seth McClung goes for the Brewers tonight. He has been pitching very well this season even though you may not hear his name brought up often. Seth has lost just one game on the road all-season. He has pitched 35 innings and has an ERA of just 3.28.
The St. Louis Cardinals had to work very hard to take care of the lowly Padres. Tonight they won’t be able to beat a good team.
Milwaukee Brewers (+)
Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins
We know the Braves have struggled on the road this season. Let’s be honest though, what team hasn’t struggled on the road this season? Christopher Volstad pitches for the Florida Marlins. Volstad is a talented pitcher but he isn’t quite ready. If the Marlins had any veteran presence Volstad would still be in the minors.
The Braves will bounce back after their tough series against the Nationals. No doubt that was a disappointing series, but the Braves still have a ton of talent. The Braves also send one of their best pitchers to the mound tonight. Jorge is just 4-4 but he has an earned run average of just 3.06.
Jorge has been lights out on the road. He has made six starts and has lost just two ball games while posting an ERA of 1.80. If there is a pitcher to trust on the road Jorge is that guy. Look for him to take care of the over-aggressive Florida Marlins team.
Atlanta Braves (+)
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
The Reds had a very tough game yesterday against the Mets. It wasn’t only the fact they lost but it was how they lost and why they lost. First of all the Reds weren’t able to win the game behind their ace. It is always tough for a team to lose a game when their ace hits the bump.
The Reds also were let down by their sloppy defense and bad bull-pen pitching. They had to use a ton of pitchers yesterday and for an extended period of time as the game went in to extras.
Homer Bailey goes for the Reds tonight. He will be replacing the injured Aaron Harang in Cincinnati. Bailey is yet to win a game and has struggled this season. Bailey is 0-3 with an ERA of 7.00. Look for the Padres behind Banks to get the job done.
San Diego Padres (+)
LA Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
The Dodgers have battled so well in their last series. They were able to steal one against the Diamondbacks yesterday in Arizona. The Dodgers have started to finally hit more. They are actually a top the division in the very weak NL West. Last night the Dodgers scored a total of six runs on twelve hits. The most impressive part was the fact they scored five runs in just the ninth inning. Not too shabby for a team that had struggled to score runs all season.
Eric Stults has been a welcome edition to the pitching staff for the Dodgers. He has now made six starts and been excellent in most of them. Eric had to make the transition to the rotation and build arm strength and he has done that. Eric has thrown 30 innings this season and allowed just 28 hits while striking out 21. Coors field isn’t exactly what it use to be. Look for the Dodgers to win this game against another NL West foe.
LA Dodgers (+)
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
This line is just too good to pass up. You can’t ignore the splits on these two teams. The Cubs were able to win the game yesterday against the Astros but they lost another road series. For the season they are just 21-28 on the road. We all know how great their record is at Wrigley, but that doesn’t help them tonight out in the dessert.
The Diamondbacks on the other hand have struggled this season. They came out red hot and since then they just haven’t been able to get any steam together. Most of their troubles though have com eon the road. They are playing nine games under .500 on the road.
Randy can still shut down line-ups. His last home start was fantastic. Six innings plus pitched and he allowed just three hits and struck out ten batters. Randy has a winning record at home and will be able to get one tonight. The trip will be too tough for the Cubs tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+)
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (55-43) at St. Louis (57-43)
Two teams that have been red-hot since the All-Star break square off at Busch Stadium in St. Louis when the Brewers come calling with Seth McClung (5-5, 4.16 ERA) on the hill against the Cardinals? Joel Pineiro (3-4, 4.52).
Milwaukee went out to San Francisco after the break and took three straight against the Giants, including Sunday?s 7-4 victory. The Brewers have won four straight overall and have taken four of five from the Cardinals and lead the season series 5-4. However, in St. Louis the Brewers are just 1-6 in their last six visits.
St. Louis swept a four-game set from the Padres to open the second half, including Sunday?s dramatic 9-5 win thanks to a walk-off grand slam off the bat of Aaron Miles. The Cardinals have won five in a row and six of their last seven overall, and they are 15-7 at home against teams with a winning record.
McClung is 0-2 in his last three outings with a 3.86 ERA and he?s lost his last two even though he didn?t allow more than three earned runs in either start. In his last road outing, he held the D-Backs to two runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 4-3 Milwaukee victory.
The Cardinals are 3-0 in Pineiro?s last three starts even though he got drilled back on July 13, giving up six runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings but his offense bailed him out with an 11-6 win. He faced these Brewers back on May 10 and gave up two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 St. Louis win. The Cardinals have won seven of his last nine outings against teams with a winning record.
The under is 4-0 in Pineiro?s last four starts against teams with a winning record and 8-2 in McClung?s last 10 overall. Meanwhile the over is on runs of 8-1 for the Brewers overall and 8-3 when they are a road ?dog. The over is also 7-1 when the Cardinals are a home favorite and 8-2-1 when they face a right-handed starter.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (55-43) at N.Y. Yankees (53-45)
The Yankees try to stay perfect since the All-Star break when they send Sidney Ponson (5-1, 3.96) to the hill at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx against the Twins? Nick Blackburn (7-5, 3.65).
New York completed a three-game sweep of the A?s on Sunday with a 2-1 victory behind the pitching of Andy Pettitte. The Yankees have won eight of their last 11 overall and seven straight at home.
The Twins opened the second half by taking two of three from the Rangers, but dropped Sunday?s series finale, 1-0. Minnesota is on runs of 21-7 overall, 16-6 against right-handed starters and 8-2 in series openers.
The Yankees have dominated this rivalry, going 37-15 in the last 52 meetings and 22-8 when the two meet in the Bronx.
Ponson is 2-0 in New York since joining the Yankees and allowed just one run on five hits in six innings of a 2-1 win over the Rays on July 9. The Yankees have won all three of his outings and have scored 29 runs in the three games. Ponson?s teams are 7-3 in his last 10 starts against Minnesota and he has held the Twins to two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts against them.
Blackburn has pitched well in his last three road outings but has nothing to show for it, giving up exactly two earned runs in all three but the Twins are just 1-2 in those three and 3-7 in his last 10 highway starts. Minnesota has won six of his last nine starts and that includes a short 4 1/3 innings of work against the Yankees on June 1 when he held them to one run on five hits in a 5-1 Twins? win.
The over is 11-5 for Minnesota on the road against teams with a winning home record and 6-2 when the Twins play on Monday. Meanwhile the under is on runs of 20-7-1 overall for the Yankees, 14-3-1 as a home favorite and 6-0 in series openers.
In this rivalry, the under is 24-9-2 in New York, but the over is 4-1 in the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Oakland (51-47) at Tampa Bay (57-40)
It?s a battle of southpaws today when the A?s send Dana Eveland (7-6, 3.49) to the mound at Tropicana Field in Tampa to battle the Rays? Scott Kazmir (7-5, 3.04).
Oakland has dropped five straight, including a 2-1 loss Sunday that completed a three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees over the weekend. The A?s managed just five runs in the three games in the Bronx and have not scored more than three runs in a game since July 11. They have won nine of their last 10 series openers and six of their last seven on Monday but they are just 2-9 in their last 11 against southpaws.
Tampa took two of three at home against the Blue Jays over the weekend, but dropped Sunday?s contest 9-4. The Rays had lost seven straight before the All-Star break but still hold one of the best home marks in baseball at 38-15. They are on further streaks of 22-5 at home against teams with a winning record and 16-5 in series openers.
Tampa has won five of the last six meetings with the A?s but Oakland holds the long-term advantage, going 57-26 in the last 83 series clashes.
Eveland has held the opposition to three runs or less in eight straight outings and the A?s have alternated wins in his last 10. In his lone start against Tampa on May 21 he held the Rays to one run on three hits and got a complete-game 9-1 victory. On the downside, the A?s are just 1-4 in Eveland?s last five on the road and 0-4 when he faces a team with a winning record.
Kazmir hasn?t been his usual dominant self lately, going 0-2 in his last three outings with a 6.19 ERA and the Rays are just 3-4 in his last seven. At home he is 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA and he has dominated Oakland, not allowing more than three runs in any of his last eight starts dating back to 2005. He beat the A?s back on May 20, allowing one run on four hits over seven innings of a 3-2 victory. Tampa is 6-1 in Kazmir?s last seven at home but 0-4 when he gets seven or more days of rest.
The under is 12-5-2 in Eveland?s last 19 starts and 6-0 when he starts a series opener. Meanwhile the under is 21-8-2 in Kazmir?s last 31 against teams with a winning record and 11-5-2 when he faces the A.L. West.
Overall for the Rays, the under is on runs of 20-7 against lefties and 12-1 at home against southpaws. For Oakland, the under is 20-8 in series openers and 8-2 against left-handed starters.
In this rivalry, the over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in Tampa, but the under is 5-1-1 when Kazmir is on the hill.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY Scott Ferrall
Boston -130 and Lester over Seattle at --in the Emerald City
Detroit (even odds) over Kansas City and Hochevar
Chicago -165 behind Vazquez over Texas--The White Sox just don' lose regularly
Toronto Litsch over Liz in Baltimore--The Jays aren't dead yet and the Orioles have been playing like shit
MILWAUKEE +105 over St.Louis--Brewers take the opener of an important series at Busch
Cincy -135 over San Diego--The Reds split with the Mets at home and now they have the lowly padres in town. SD doesn't win games
5* MLB BEST BET WINNER!
$25.00
Capper Ron Raymond has released his 5* MLB BEST BET WINNER for Monday, July 21st 2008. Ron has a team system that is 15-2-2 since 1997 backing up this selection for Monday. Watch and Win or you don't pay.
San Diego/Cincinnati - Over 10 THE KING MAKER
PLAY OF THE DAY
$10.00
Today we're rolling with a well grounded play. Our 4th 2-Unit play since the All-Star Break (3-0) should be another Winner. We have a nice Ground-Ball VS Fly Ball battle, and we love the idea of backing one of those guys today!
2-Units Florida Marlins -120
Larry Ness
15* Situational Game of the Week (32-15 MLB run since June 30)
Larry went 25-12 with his MLB plays the L2 weeks before the All Star break. When play resumed on Thursday, he continued his winning ways by going 7-3 the L4 days (now 32-15 s/June 30), including a perfect 3-0 with GOW plays (two-year regular season run with GOW plays is now 172-86!). The winning continues tonight. Any takers?
15* Boston Red Sox
over Seattle
Should be lots of runs and lots of fun. Oh, the Red Sox will bring out the best that Seattle has to offer this week. But I have to think that the Sox get back in the win column and take this series. If not, I am pretty certain they aren't going to get swept. Seattle keeps pushing back Jarrod Washburn's post-All Star start. Why? Either he's not 100 percent or they want a matchup with the Sox. Well, Boston is one of the top teams in the league against left-handers and Washburn has been better on the road (4.67 ERA) than at home (5.14 ERA) so it's kind of lose-lose. Johnny Lester just wins, and the Sox are 24-9 in his last 33 starts.
2-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (-135) over Arizona
This one was tough, because I have a fantastic system that suggests the D-Backs. But the way I want to play this one is that we get Game 1 with Chicago and then we get on the Backs for Games 2 and 3. Why am I crossing the streams, so to speak? Because Randy Johnson has been a wreck this year, the Cubs crush left-handed pitching, the D-Backs are coming off a stunning, stomach-punch loss to the Dodgers in a huge rivalry series over the weekend, and Rich Harden at this price is kind of a no-brainer.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+125) over New York Yankees
Note: If you have not played this game already, this should be a 2-UNIT PLAY.
C'mon. Which of these teams has really been the better club over the first half of the year? Seriously. Minnesota is not a great team on grass. But their speed is going to drive the Yankees nuts. We are going to chase the Twins, who are going to be an underdog in all three games. I am POSITIVE that the Twins will win one of the three games and earn us some cash.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Baltimore (-110) over Toronto
Really sound system, which I cannot divulge!, suggests that the Orioles are going to knock around the ol' Blue Jays this week. Not really much more on the play than that. Great system, sharp play.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Texas (+160) over Chicago White Sox
I feel the way about this Texas-Chicago series as I do about the Minnesota-NY series. I know the Rangers are going to slug their way to at least one win. The White Sox have a tendancy to get up early and then kind of mail games in through the last five innings or so. Can't do that against the Rangers. We're going to get strong dog odds on Texas all week and we're going to play them for one victory and a cash. Texas is 9-5 overall in this series and has won a game in each of their last five trips to Chicago.
1-Unit Play. Los Angeles Angels (-1.5, +105) over Cleveland
Matty O'Shea
MLB Total
Double-Dime bet CWS / TEX Over 9.5
The Rangers and White Sox saw their previous two meetings average nearly 20 runs last weekend, and there's no reason to believe that high-scoring trend won't continue here in this series opener at Chicago. The Sox saw their next three games at home average 13 runs against the Royals after that series at Arlington, with each one going OVER the total. Chicago will send Javier Vazquez to the mound, and he is 2-3 with a 6.80 ERA in his last seven starts. Vazquez has seen the OVER cash in seven of his last eight home starts. Meanwhile, Texas starter Eric Hurley will be making his first start since June 29th due to a hamstring injury and has not gone more than six innings yet in his young career. Both teams hit righties hard, and I simply expect this to be another explosive affair. Bet the OVER as my Double Dime AL Total Play O' the Week.
DIAMOND XCHANGE SPORTS
**************
3-1 YESTERDAY (+15 UNITS)
7/21
10*- BOSTON MINUS 1- (+125)
9* - CUBS MINUS 1- (+125)
8* - PIRATES +140
8* - PIRATES OVER 10- (-105)
COMPS
TORONTO OVER 10
OAKLAND +180
GOOD LUCK !!!
Terron Chapman
Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
The Florida Marlins will look to carry the momentum they gained from Sunday's walk off win against the Phillies into game 1 of their series tonight with the Atlanta Braves. They will send a young right hander to the mound in Christopher Volstad who was electric in his first big league start.
I'm a little apprehensive in recommending a play on a rookie pitcher in his first home start but I was impressed by what I saw from Volstad in his first outing against the Dodgers. He has an electric fastball with good command of his changeup. He struck out six while going 8 2/3 innings allowing just 5 hits and 1 earned run in the Marlins 3-1 win nine days ago. He should be tough against a Braves team who is coming off a rough weekend, dropping two of three to the lowly Washington Nationals including a 15-6 drubbing yesterday.
The Braves are one of the major's worst road teams with a record of 15-32. Jorge Campillo will get the start for the Braves. After a strong start the right hander has cooled off some and comes into the game just 1-2 in his last three with an ERA of 5.00. The Braves are just 2-5 in his last 7 starts overall. He lasted only four innings in his only appearance against the Marlins giving up 6 hits and 4 earned runs in only 4 innings pitched inlcluding two homer's. The Braves are hitting just .202 against right handers the last 10 games.Play on the Florida Marlins for 1 unit.
Bobby Maxwell
Chicago Cubs at ARIZONA +125
We are going to grab the plus-money in this one and play the D’Backs at home. Remember the Cubs are having a great season but they haven’t been much on the road, going 21-28 away from Wrigley.
Chicago is 5-11 in its last 16 on the road and a horrendous 7-25 in their last 32 trips to Arizona.
Plus Arizona has Randy Johnson (6-7, 5.23 ERA) on the mound today and this guy has owned the Cubs in his career. The D’Backs are 10-0 in his last 10 starts against Chicago and 7-0 at Chase Field when he takes the mound against them.
The D’Backs are 55-27 when Johnson starts in a series opener and they are 14-6 in their last 20 Monday games.
Meanwhile the Cubs have newly acquired Rich Harden on the mound and they are just 3-9 when facing a team with a winning home record and 2-5 on the road against southpaws.
Let’s get the plus-money and play the D’Backs tonight.
2* ARIZONA
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Brewers +106
The Brewers have won 4 straight and they are a dominant 13-4 in their last 17 vs. the National League Central. The Brewers are also 11-3 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. Milwaukee has won 4 of the last 5 meetings and it has the edge again here. The Cardinals are just 1-5 in Pineiro's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Brew Crew at a great price.
Monday's Comp Selection
Comp selections are never the pod, but one of the premium selections on the card. It adds a little more to the thread each day and I simply believe if you put something out, it should be something that you are actually playing.
Angels/Indians Over 8.5 (Free Play)
Normally I'm not a fan of taking overs with Santana, but he comes off a great start and is in for a little bit of let down here and remember the Indians are looking to show some heart after a terrible first half and they had a decent home stand where they at least played better, heck, the Angels could get quite a few runs on Byrd alone as he comes off one of his few half-decent starts and I think this game is likely to be more competitive than expected as I have this at possibly 10 runs, given that the over is 5-0 for the Indians of late on the road, the over is 4-0 when Byrd faces a winning team meaning his pitching does not hold up as well as the over is 4-0 for Santana following a quality appearance, I'll take my chances here on the over.
research:
The Indians had a good home stand of late, but now have to hit the road where they are 17-32 on the year, Byrd is 3-10 on the year and the juice on Santana shows how bad the year has been for the Indians and Byrd, Byrd hasn't picked up a win since June 6th, the Indians have lost 9 of the last 10 games he has started, he has been giving up a ton of hits and has not put together back to back quality starts in quite some time and his last start can be considered quality for his standards this year, Santana is 11-3 this year and comes off a dominating performance at Oakland where he gave up 0 runs in 7 innings in what was a bounce-back game for him, he has at times though been having trouble putting together back to back starts, but one has to lean on the Indians run-line here, I'm not a fan of the run-line but it has value here. This is likely to be a high scoring game as an 8.5 line with Byrd is fairly small. The question is, can the Indians score as the Angels should be able to get to Byrd.
Cajun-Sports
Game: Toronto Blue Jays (Litsch) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Liz) 8:05 EST
Prediction: OVER 10 (+100)
Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)
Analysis:
Baltimore plays host to the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night in the opening game of a four-game set between these two teams.
The Orioles have been competitive this season and that success has come in large part to their bullpen. Their bullpen has posted an ERA of 3.49 but overuse has depleted their effectiveness lately.
The last six games have seen only Olson and Guthrie pitch at least six innings in their outings. The lack of productivity from the Orioles starters has forced the relievers to pitch over 8 innings in just the last two games allowing five runs and eleven hits. They gave up two runs and four hits in 3 2/3 innings of work in a 5 to 1 loss to the Tigers on Sunday.
Baltimore will send Radhames Liz to the bump on Monday with his 3-2 record and 7.57 ERA. The right-hander is coming off the worst start of his brief career, allowing eight runs and six hits in 2 1/3 innings as Baltimore lost 12-1 to Boston on July 12. He's failed to go at least four innings in three of his eight starts, and has never pitched more than 6 1/3 in his career. Liz also has given up 12 runs in six innings while losing his last two starts.
Toronto will send Jesse Litsch to the hill with his 8-6 record and 4.16 ERA. Over his last two starts we see his ERA has skyrocketed to 10.13 while losing both starts.
After beginning the season 7-1, Litsch has won once in his last eight outings. The right-hander gave up eight runs three of those earned and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings as Toronto lost 9-4 to the New York Yankees on July 12. Litsch is 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA in three starts against the Orioles.
Data base research supports our selection on the Over in tonight?s contest between the Orioles and Blue Jays. Toronto is 4-1 Over their last 5 when their opponent allowed at least 5 runs in their previous game, 10-3 Over their last 13 versus the AL East, 8-3 Over their last 11 road games versus right-handed starters, 13-5-1 Over their last 19 versus right-handed starters overall. Baltimore is 10-2-2 Over versus the AL East, 22-6-3 Over their last 31 after suffering a SU loss, 10-3-1 Over their last 14 after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game, 23-7-1 Over their last 31 as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 19-7-1 Over their last 27 overall and Liz is 10-1 Over his last 11 starts overall. SERIES: 12-1 Over their last 13 overall and 5-1 Over their last 6 played in Baltimore.
Our Pitcher Power Index indicates Liz will allow the Blue Jays to plate 5.6 runs while Litsch gets touched for 6.1 runs in tonight?s contest. Our Team Power Index Ratings predict an Over in tonight?s game with a final score of Baltimore 7 and Toronto 5.
The combination of poor starting pitching and the Orioles bullpen struggling should be enough to send this game well over the posted total.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* TORONTO / BALTIMORE OVER 10 (+100)
PRO INFO SPORTS
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: OVER 10
Baltimore plays host to the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night in the opening game of a four-game set between these two teams.
The Orioles have been competitive this season and that success has come in large part to their bullpen. Their bullpen has posted an ERA of 3.49 but overuse has depleted their effectiveness lately.
The last six games have seen only Olson and Guthrie pitch at least six innings in their outings. The lack of productivity from the Orioles starters has forced the relievers to pitch over 8 innings in just the last two games allowing five runs and eleven hits. They gave up two runs and four hits in 3 2/3 innings of work in a 5 to 1 loss to the Tigers on Sunday.
Baltimore will send Radhames Liz to the bump on Monday with his 3-2 record and 7.57 ERA. The right-hander is coming off the worst start of his brief career, allowing eight runs and six hits in 2 1/3 innings as Baltimore lost 12-1 to Boston on July 12. He's failed to go at least four innings in three of his eight starts, and has never pitched more than 6 1/3 in his career. Liz also has given up 12 runs in six innings while losing his last two starts.
Toronto will send Jesse Litsch to the hill with his 8-6 record and 4.16 ERA. Over his last two starts we see his ERA has skyrocketed to 10.13 while losing both starts.
After beginning the season 7-1, Litsch has won once in his last eight outings. The right-hander gave up eight runs three of those earned and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings as Toronto lost 9-4 to the New York Yankees on July 12. Litsch is 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA in three starts against the Orioles.
Data base research supports our selection on the Over in tonight?s contest between the Orioles and Blue Jays. Toronto is 4-1 Over their last 5 when their opponent allowed at least 5 runs in their previous game, 10-3 Over their last 13 versus the AL East, 8-3 Over their last 11 road games versus right-handed starters, 13-5-1 Over their last 19 versus right-handed starters overall. Baltimore is 10-2-2 Over versus the AL East, 22-6-3 Over their last 31 after suffering a SU loss, 10-3-1 Over their last 14 after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game, 23-7-1 Over their last 31 as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 19-7-1 Over their last 27 overall and Liz is 10-1 Over his last 11 starts overall. SERIES: 12-1 Over their last 13 overall and 5-1 Over their last 6 played in Baltimore.
Our Pitcher Power Index indicates Liz will allow the Blue Jays to plate 5.6 runs while Litsch gets touched for 6.1 runs in tonight?s contest. Our Team Power Index Ratings predict an Over in tonight?s game with a final score of Baltimore 7 and Toronto 5.
The combination of poor starting pitching and the Orioles bullpen struggling should be enough to send this game well over the posted total.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* TORONTO / BALTIMORE OVER 10
TOM FREESE
Blue Line Club
7/21/08
Minnesota at New York (7:05pm)
Minnesota is red hot winning 21 of their last 28 games. They are 16-5 their last 22 games vs. righty starters and they are 11-3 after allowing 2 or less runs in their last game. The Twins are 6-2 with Nick Blackburn on the mound vs. winning teams and he has allowed 5 runs total in his last 3 starts. New York is 2-7 their last 9 games when playing Game 1 of a series and they are 0-5 their last 5 Monday games. Starting pitcher Sidney Ponson has allowed 8 runs in his last 11 innings of work. PLAY ON MINNESOTA +
Monday's MLB Research
IndianCowboy
Toronto vs. Baltimore
Litsh faces Liz here as Toronto hits the road off of a big win at Tampa Bay. Litsch lasted less than 3 innings against the Yankees in his last start, and before that, he gave up 6 runs in just over 5 innings, he is 1-5-2 over his last 8 starts and has struggled, do keep in mind though that the Bluejays struggle in scoring runs overall, Liz has had horrendous starts himself against Texas at home where he gave up 4 runs in less than 4 innings and at Boston where he gave up 8 runs in just over 2 innings. Liz has pitched in 7 straight overs and 9 of 10 overs, suprisingly though the public favors the under a bit more, despite Liz and Litsch both giving up their fair share of runs lately, one could expect them to bounce-back here, but I just don't see it - lean on the over here.
Minny vs. New York
I tell you what, I love watching the Twins play. They have the knack of coming back and winning ballgames which the old braves used to have and it is fun watching this team with their pitching, defense and timely hitting. Blackburn has pitched 3 straight quality starts, I don't beleive he's ever put together 4 straight quality starts, but he did pitch great at Detroit and at Boston, he also beat the Yankees earlier this year by holding them to just 1 run in a 5-1 victory, also cashing in as a +104 dog, Ponson, known as the proverbial ******* because of his crappy attitude towards others in the clubhouse, is 5-1 this year and has an ERA just under 4 remarkably. The public is backing the Yankees at a 2:1 clip here, Ponson has helped his team win their last 7 of 10 starts, and the Yankees to win their last 3, but he rarely puts together back to back wins, I actually lean on the kid here and the Twins as I just trust Blackburn more, even though the Yankees have a bit of revenge against him.
Oakland vs. Tampa Bay
I am tempted to take Oakland just on the pure dog price alone here hovering around +180 right now, granted, Tampa Bay does come off a beat down at home so they will likely be fired up in facing Eveland, keep in mind that Eveland pitched a complete game 3 hitter and gave up just 1 run when he faced TB at home last time so the Rays have revenge in that aspect as well, Eveland does come off a loss though and he has not put together back to back losses at least in his last 10 starts, and in fact, his team has not lost back to back ballgames when he has pitched all year:
7/12/2008 LAA S L 1-4 L 103
7/7/2008 SEA W 4-3 W -138
7/2/2008 @ LAA S ND 4-7 L 126
6/27/2008 SF W 4-1 W -166
6/21/2008 FLA ND 4-6 L -142
6/15/2008 @ SF W 5-3 W -118
6/10/2008 NYY L 1-3 L 112
6/3/2008 DET ND 5-4 W -115
5/29/2008 TOR L 0-12 L -123
5/21/2008 TB W 9-1 W -119
You should see a trend here, of a win, loss, win, loss, etc... That doesn't mean it carries today, it just means typically he shows up afte his team lost from his previous start. Kaz has lost back to back starts and he is looking to bounce-back after a tough loss at Cleveland and before that he lost to the Yankees despite pitching well. I actually lean on the A's here despite the Drays having revenge on young Eveland from that complete game he pitched against them back on may, a bit tempted at the A's +1.5 here as well.
Detroit vs. Kansas City
Miner makes his first start in quite some time for the Tigers tomorrow and it's on the road at KC, the public doesn't seem to mind though as they back him at 58%, he was 7-6 last year, Hochevar pitched great against Seatlte in his last start at home, but who doesn't, plus, he has a tendency to give up far too many hits despite being able to pick up some wins, this game could go either way, wouldn't be surprised to see an over as Hochevar comes off a great start, frankly a tossup game.
Texas vs. White Sox
Texas comes into this game with 51 wins, heck, just 3 less than the White Sox, Hurley has some great stats in that he gives up about a hit an inning, but overall has pitched very well for the Rangers this year, he beat Philly at home as a +113 underdog as the rangers won 5-1, he gave up 2 runs at Houston and 2 runs to Atlanta at home. Vasquez comes off a terrible start at KC, so he is on a bounce-back here, but there is no reason why he should be favored by this much, after all the Ranger offense is just as good, and the Hurley kid has pitched far better than Vasquez thus far, heck, the White sox have not faced Hurley this year as well so advanage Hurley, don't get me wrong, Vasquez is on a bounce-back here so one will be playing with fire a bit, and he has not lost back to back ballgames in over 10 games, if anything a lean on the rangers for pure value despite vasquez being on the bounce-back and a small lean on the under as well.
Cleveland vs. Angels
The Indians had a good home stand of late, but now have to hit the road where they are 17-32 on the year, Byrd is 3-10 on the year and the juice on Santana shows how bad the year has been for the Indians and Byrd, Byrd hasn't picked up a win since June 6th, the Indians have lost 9 of the last 10 games he has started, he has been giving up a ton of hits and has not put together back to back quality starts in quite some time and his last start can be considered quality for his standards this year, Santana is 11-3 this year and comes off a dominating performance at Oakland where he gave up 0 runs in 7 innings in what was a bounce-back game for him, he has at times though been having trouble putting together back to back starts, but one has to lean on the indians run-line here, i'm not a fan of the run-line but it has value here. This is likely to be a high scoring game as an 8.5 line with Byrd is fairly small. The question is, can the Indians score as the Angels should be able to get to Byrd.
Bostonvs. Seattle
Nearly 70% favor Boston here on the road off a loss, of course, I'm glad they lost considering I was on the Angels for my POD, Lester comes off a fortunate 6-5 win at home against Minny in his last start, but he is on for a bounce-back here, Wash had a great start against KC and picked up a no-decision besides pitching exceptionally well as the bullpen blew it for him late, he has pitched 7 of 9 quality starts of late and hasn't pitched a back to back over ballgame since May 25th. Heck, the guy had pitched in 7 straight unders before the last over at KC and that game truly shouldn't have gone over. I actually lean on the under here, as this should be a competitive pitching contest.
frank Rosenthal
952 Fish-115 Sb
Over 9 Sb
954 Reds Over 9.5 Sb
957 Brewers+110 Sb
961 Cubs Under 8 Sb+
964 Yanks-125 Sb
Under 9.5 Sb
969 Tex Over 9.5 Sb+
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
MLB Total
triple-dime bet KAN / DET Under 9.5
UNDER Royals/Tigers
The Tigers just cant solve the Royals this season. Theyre 0-6 against them and have averaged less than two runs per game! Overall, the games between Detroit and Kansas City have averaged about six runs per game and indeed there is some value here with going under the big number. Both teams are coming into this series off of some impressive offensive performances in their first series after the All Star Break. Detroit scored 25 runs in splitting their four game set with the Orioles. The Royals scored 22 runs in taking two of three from the White Sox. However, good pitching shuts down good hitting and tonights pitching match-up has the makings of a pitchers duel even though the starters involved tonight are not where youd normally think to look for a pitchers duel. Zach Miner is getting a chance to earn the #5 spot in the Tigers rotation and hes certainly earned it. Miner has been coming out of the bullpen and hes definitely been getting the job done! Hes 2-1 in his last 19 appearances with a stellar 0.68 ERA. In starting 17 games over the past three seasons Miner compiled a 7-7 record. However, sometimes a long stint in the bullpen is what rejuvenates a pitcher who wants badly to be in the starting role. This is precisely what we see with this situation with Miner and we expect him to stay hot, just like he was out of the bullpen, and mow down the Royals on Monday. As for the Kansas City pitching situation, the Royals are pretty well set with Luke Hochevar. His overall numbers this season may not appear that impressive but the right-hander has great stuff and hes grown as the season has gone on. Hochevar is finally learning to trust his stuff and he showed this once again in bouncing back from a couple of rough outings by totally dominating Seattle in his most recent start on July 11th. Hochevar is 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA against the Tigers and he already beat them at Kauffman Stadium back in May. Look for more of the same here. Hochevar has been much tougher at home than on the road and his 4-2 record at Kauffman Stadium with a 3.48 ERA is a sign of things to come. Though most wont think of a pitchers duel with these two hurlers on the mound, you can see from the above why one is quite likely! With the extra line value being offered with this big total the UNDER is the total of the month!
BIG AL
Braves vs. Marlins (MLB) Monday July 21nd, 2008 7:10 ET
Pick: Money Line Braves
At 7:10pm our complimentary selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Florida Marlins. You need a computerized scorecard to keep up with the ever-changing Florida Marlins rotation. Originally, Andrew Miller was supposed to start Sunday's game against the Phils, but Miller is now to be placed on the DL, so righthander Josh Johnson, who just came back off the DL after Tommy John surgery (he is attempting less than a year recovery time - which is rare) will have his start moved up from Monday to Sunday which means 21-year-old rookie righthander Chris Volstad will get the start in this game at home against the Braves. Volstad may be 2-0 with an ERA of 0.84 so far in his Major League debut season, but those stats are most likely deceiving as nothing in Volstad's minor league numbers indicates that he is ready for a stint as a regular starter in the Majors. Last year in single A ball, Volstad was 8-9 with a 4.50 ERA and this year he has improved slightly to go 4-4 at double A ball. But it is a long way from that level to facing the likes of Chipper Jones and Mark Texeira. The Braves have had their own share of pitching injuries this season, and today's starter, righthander Jorge Campillo was doubtful for this start after fouling a ball of his foot last Sunday, but he has recovered and will make the start today, which is good news for Atlanta who have continued to struggle on the road and should benefit from having him on the mound as Campillo is one of Atlanta's best road performers with a 1.80 ERA in four starts away from Turner Field this season.
Take the Braves.
Steven Budin-CEO
MONDAY'S PICK
25 DIME
NEW YORK YANKEES
PAID!
Dwayne Bryant
7:05 PM ET
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers (McClung) at St. Louis Cardinals (Pineiro)
Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (Listed Pitchers) +107
The Brewers are a solid road dog here. They are coming off a three-game sweep of the Giants and they scored 24 runs in that sweep at San Francisco. Milwaukee has now won five of its last six on the road and they've won five of their last seven meetings with the Cards. Ryan Braun is batting .391 (18-for-46) with four home runs, five doubles and 13 RBIs in his last 11 games. He's fared even better against the Cardinals, as he has hit two home runs in each of his last two games against them and is batting .413 (31-for-75) with seven homers and 20 RBIs in 18 career games vs. St. Louis.
Milwaukee starter Seth McClung has pitched well lately, posting a 3.86 ERA in his three July starts, but he has only received three total runs of support in those games. This will be McClung's first career start against the Cardinals, but he made two relief appearances against them in April, allowing two hits in four scoreless innings.
St. Louis counters with Joel Pineiro, who has just one victory in his last 11 starts. Pineiro's home numbers (3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .323 OBP) are actually slightly worse than McClung's road numbers (3.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .318 OBP). Pineiro has struggled a bit in his last three starts, sporting a 5.29 ERA, 1.94 WHIP and .425 OBP.
The Brewers are 26-9 in their last 35 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and they're 11-3 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 1-5 in Pineiro's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 1-5 in Pineiro's last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Take Milwaukee/McClung over St. Louis/Pineiro.
Handicapper: Slade Henning
Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -108 Florida Marlins Play Title: Southcoast Sports MLB Play of the Day!
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Next MLB Release will be on Tuesday at 4:00 P.M. CST!!!
#952 Florida Marlins -108
3-Units (6:10 P.M. CST)
It will be interesting to see how Florida's top pitching prospect will fair in his third appearance of the season. Chris Volstad has shown promise in one relief appearance and one start so for this season. He has allowed one earned run over 10 innings of work, holding opposing hitters to a .194 batting average. His sinking fastball got the job done in the minors, and now it seems to be working in the majors. It's still early to make a judgement for, or against him, but from the looks of things, he will have a promising career at this level. Volstad will be opposed by Atlanta's Jorge Campillo. Campillo has pitched decently on the season, but has given up 4 home runs over his last 3 games. He will be facing a Florida team that loves to hit homers. The last time he faced them he lasted just 4 innings after giving up two long balls and 4 earned runs. The Braves are hitting .210 and scoring 3.92 runs a game vs righties over their last 10 games, while Florida is hitting .257 and scoring 4.33 runs a game vs righties over their last 10. Atlanta is still one of the worst road teams in the Majors, while Florida is strong in the late innings with a solid bullpen.
Take the Florida Marlins -108 for 3-Units!
Thanks and Good Luck
Slade
Southcoast Sports
Vernon Croy
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona D-Backs (MLB) - 9:40 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -134 Chicago Cubs
20 Units MLB Bookie Buster
Chicago Cubs
20 Units, Take Chicago ML, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Cubs have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight. Rich Harden (5-1, 2.19 ERA) has pitched solid overall this season and he has an ERA of just 2.35 over his last 3 starts while allowing no earned runs over his last start while lasting 5.3 innings. Randy Johnson (6-7, 5.23 ERA) has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 6.43 over 9 starts and while allowing 63 hits and 11 homeruns over just 49 innings. The Cubs are hitting .285 as a team against lefty starters this season while averaging 6.2 rpg and the D-Backs are just 14-27 when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Cubs are now 24-13 in their last 37 games as a road favorite of -125 to -150 and Randy Johnson's perfect 10-0 record against the Cubs ends tonight.
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Cincinnati Reds
Service Plays Monday July 21 
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