A Week #11 Total

[The Sports Cruncher]

Cleveland has had a brutally bad offense this year, but that is in part due to the brutally tough lineup of defenses they've faced year to date, the toughest that any team has faced this year (though there's a bit of yin-yang in the #1 ranking as those defenses have all been helped by playing the Browns). The weakest defense they've faced so far this year in yards per play allowed is the Vikings. Brady Quinn had his best game of the season in that loss to the Vikings. The Lions' defense is nowhere near as good as the Vikings.
The Lions find themselves in a similar situation, having faced the 4th toughest schedule of defenses year to date. The Lions have faced a couple of bottom level defenses in the Rams and Seahawks. I think the action on the line in this game for both the total and spread have been driven by the Lions' last home game, a 10-17 loss to the Rams. Maybe people are figuring if the Lions can't beat the Rams at home they can't cover 3.5 or 4 points on the Browns (my line is about 3.3, actually). Maybe people are forgetting that in that game versus the Rams Matthew Stafford was making his return from injury and didn't have his big #1 receiver Calvin Johnson for the game. Calvin returned and the passing game still struggled on the road at Seattle (interceptions) and Minnesota (avoided interceptions by throwing short repeatedly). Still, the passing game had some success at different stages of those games, something the Browns have seen almost nothing of this season, barring the one competitive home game they had versus the Bengals when Anderson was making his first start. That was the only game all year when the Browns' passing game stayed within a yard of gaining what the opposing defense normally gives up per passing play, and just barely at -0.9. They average gaining 2.35 yards per passing play than their opponent's normally allow.
The Lions are only almost half that bad with a -1.24 yards per pass differential, but they posted a really bad passing number in week #6 (-3.4) when Culpepper (one INT in the game) had to start for the injured Stafford and who was in turn injured and replaced by Stanton, who threw two picks and also no tds in a shutout loss to Green Bay. The Lions have been slowly recovering from injuries since then, but were in tough spots in the aforementioned two consecutive road games leading up Sunday's game versus the Browns.
While both offenses are ranked at (the Browns) or near the bottom, their defenses don't rank much better. The Browns have the stronger (less weak?) of the two defenses, with the Lions having the worst defense in the league, struggling with injuries through the middle portion of the season, but really not faring any better with their starters in anyway.
Bad offenses versus equally bad defenses should equate to a total just a little below average, as offenses still have to execute to move the ball, even versus bad defenses. My line generation is more complex than that, but sets the total right in line with that thinking at 41.1 I guess both teams could look to pound the ball versus the weakest run defenses they've seen all year, playing conservatively to try and get a win and avoid the embarrassment of losing a game like this one, but I think both teams instead will use it as an opportunity to throw the ball a lot and find what they have in the passing game when facing a weak defense. The Browns have very few objectives for the rest of the season other than securing a high draft pick, but one of them is to see what kind of a quarterback Brady Quinn is, and this is their best opportunity to do so. Clearly the Lions are committed to Stafford longterm at this point in time, and may run a more balanced offense. In the couple of close games they've had this year they've had a near 50/50 split in rush and pass attempts.
My spreadsheet is telling me that 37.5 is too low of a total when it's all said and done. In what rates to be near a field goal game I'm buying onto the most key total # of 37 with a play on the Over (always nice when the 17-17 tie becomes a push on 37 at worst).

[Micelli]

one of my top plays today. excellent write up, and i love that 79% of 37,000 wagers are on the under. BOL, we may get a better number without having to buy. Good Luck!!!

[u.n.c.l.e.]

thanks Cruncher. Great info. Learned a few things, appreciate it.

[u.n.c.l.e.]

ya baby! over by the half!