Week 1 action

NattyBumpo · 11-09-2009, 05:50 AM

714 - Cal -13.5 vs Murray St.

Might seem a little square, but Cal is a seasoned top 20/ possible sweet 16 team at home with top notch guards. Supposedly one of the best backcourts in the country. Doesnt seem like too forbidding of a number to me. Murray is a fine team in my opinion for a lower mid major school but thier conference is where the heart of thier season lies. Not too many at large bids coming from this conference. Cal isnt huge inside but these teams match up evenly sizewise. Dont trust Murray to shoot well from the perimiter in a venue like this out of the gate either.

Ill probably be looking to play some totals later but this is the only side Im looking at for Monday. Its not really anything Id play heavy to start off the season but Im gonna give it a shot. Not a lot to go by til we see some action but I think Cal has a good chance to cover by what little I do know.

ohmigods · 11-09-2009, 01:29 PM

gL natty, like the play
714 - Cal -13.5

last year 1st rd of
Coaches vs Cancer
UCLA -37 = ats loss
Duke -35 = ats loss
Mich -21 = ats win
S Ill was no line

hard to win ats with numbers in 30s

NattyBumpo · 11-09-2009, 05:25 PM

Finally got some totals to play:

712 - FIU/N.Carolina over 153.5

714 - Murray St./Cal 137

FIU should employ score fast and often and N.Carolina will probably play along with superior success.

Cal scored in the 80s quite consistantly at home in non conference play last year and have the same basic starting line up. Murray (with the same situation regarding experience) can score too. Cal shot nearly 50% in Chico exhibition at home, they are deep and will score (I hope). Murray will be forced to play catch up (I hope).

Starting the year off 3-0 (I hope..... ha ha)

Best of luck to all.

Dirty · 11-09-2009, 06:44 PM

GL... I am on Cal as well

NattyBumpo · 11-10-2009, 09:41 AM

Murray very impressive, wouldnt give Cal very many open shots. Both teams looked good in my opinion but Cal could really be in for a struggle against bigger teams with athletes. I will be wary of playing them on the road for the time being also

2-1 for the week so far.

Liking Robert Morris as a side. Hoping to catch 10 or more. Anybody think they got a chance to beat the Cuse? Im leaning yes. Wondering if the 1st half is a better play also. Bring input here my brothers.

Justin · 11-10-2009, 03:47 PM

I am with you with your thoughts on Robert Morris. RM is interesting because they run kind of a gimmicky offense compared to the rest of there conference, which has proved to be successful. I don't know who they've lost off the top of my head, but watching cuse last night made me think that there big man (don't know his name) will have problems against more expierenced players and become more exposed. Reminds me of UCONN's Center last year, against 6"7 unathletic PF playing C he would do very well but against Pitt's Blair he gets shutdown on offense and owned on defense. I really do think that syracuse has some proving to do before I'll start backing them on the road being a double digit fav against a team they have no expierence with. Syracuse's guard play is what really shocked me last night (i know it was against albany) because they really can run the floor in the open court. It looks like they have finnishers which will prove for some great runs but not sure they are ready to take flight yet.

With all that being said and RM first tourney appearance last year expectations couldn't be any higher. I do think that RM will have trouble dealing with the added pressure of expectations, I know if I was a player this is a hugggeeee game for me because of the expectation factor. No one is expecting RM to compete with Cuse except for the coaching staff and players. I just do not believe that the RM players will respond well to this pressure.

I lean RM but only at 14 or better.

Interesting take on Cal, do you think they will be good fade material on the road or do you think last night was just a case of the first game jitters?

GL Natty

Micelli · 11-11-2009, 10:04 AM

Good luck this year bro.

And NO, Robert Morris has zero chance of beating Syracuse tonight. Zero

NattyBumpo · 11-11-2009, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Micelli

Good luck this year bro.

And NO, Robert Morris has zero chance of beating Syracuse tonight. Zero

Thanks Micelli. Glad I asked. Was really looking for your opinion here. Ill put that ML action back in my pocket. I do think +18 is pretty generous though. No? Thought the Cuse had some sloppy stats in the TO and offensive boards dept.

Justin, my thoughts on Cal; I think teams that have trouble rebounding and arent great on defense can struggle on the road, especially against good teams. When they are favored on the road and cant control the boards, they might have a tough time and possibly lose to inferior teams if thier shots dont fall. Hard to be sure after one game but this might be a safe way to approach Cal early on. Not saying Cal cant defend but the first game at home gave a pretty high shooting percentage to
a very good Murray team. Cal should improve there though. Too good a coach to allow that to continue.

NattyBumpo · 11-11-2009, 02:01 PM

Wednesday action:

731 - Robert Morris +18 @ Syracuse

Although Syracuse looked good in the ATS column and played pretty good on the defensive end against Albany, one must consider Albany is down this year and doesnt seem to have much offensive firepower anyway. Syracuse giving up 21 turnovers and only having 2 more offensive rebounds than Albany are the stats that have me questioning Syracuse at this point. A valid word of caution being that its only one game should be considered though. Robert Morris has lost its best player but returns a nucleus of veterans that gave a credible performance vs Mich.St. in the Tourney last year. Seeing a lot of respectable cappers on RB also. Hope its as good as it looks..... we all know how that goes most of the time.

Im considering a possible under (guessing 65 or more as a cap) in the Detroit/Cal 1st half. Any thoughts? Might not be available with the way the books are acting right now so Ill stay on my toes.

NattyBumpo · 11-11-2009, 03:36 PM

Adding for Wednesday:

Detroit/Cal under 66 1st half

Think Detroit can keep up a good enough defensive effort in the first half. Cals size issues might make it difficult for them to push the tempo. It will be to Detroits benefit to slow the pace and work patiently for points in the paint. Im not absolutely sure this is how it will go, but thats the way Im guessing it will. I like it best for the 1st half because Im thinking Detroit might get worn down and allow Cal to get more open shots in the second half. Cal could get hot and the pace of the game could go to hell after that.

Dirty · 11-11-2009, 04:44 PM

Good Luck

Justin · 11-11-2009, 04:49 PM

Good luck tonight, really liking your 1st half play

NattyBumpo · 11-12-2009, 12:16 AM

Tough sledding Wednesday night. I must admit, I stepped into a land mine with Syracuse. If nothing else they are buying into the defensive side the game plan. And Im thinking theres something else too.

Pissed about Detroits approach in the first half. They got lucky to keep it close in the first half and Cals defense seems to be looking bad right now. Cant blame Detroit for saying fuck it in the second half after things got away but Im shocked they took so many bad shots early in possessions in the first half. Oh well, back to the drawing board.

NattyBumpo · 11-12-2009, 10:39 AM

Wednesday action.

507 - Ga.St. +10 @ NC St.

Some good talent at Ga.St. They should have done better last year but obviously they had some issues. Experience at guard and some SEC caliber talent should pan out for a much better result if the chemistry can be there. NC St. should be worse than last year out of the gate. Rebuilding process in the works... I thought 8 was a reasonable number with a lean to Ga.St. Ill take double digits and seeing my man Micelli on em makes it seem even better.

Dirty · 11-12-2009, 01:54 PM

Good Luck

Micelli · 11-12-2009, 04:01 PM

good luck tonight

NattyBumpo · 11-13-2009, 12:18 AM

Friday action:

726 - Towson +1.5 vs Mia.Ohio

748 - Kansas -27 vs Hofstra

759 - N.Iowa -5 @ Denver

763 - N.Mex.St. +7 @ Saint Marys

793 - Wofford +16 @ Pittsburgh

Good luck and Peace.

NattyBumpo · 11-13-2009, 04:37 PM

Adding:

782 - Boise St. -9 vs Loyola Marymount

773 - UW Green Bay +2.5 @ UAB

Good luck.

NattyBumpo · 11-13-2009, 06:23 PM

I did not get my Milwaukee Green Bay in. I sometimes post my plays before I leave work based on the prevailing line at the time and then bet it on my way home. I generally use the Casinos, not off shore. I didnt notice the time change on this game and didnt get action because it was already underway. An honest mistake that went against me since it was an easy winner, my bad.

This game will not be added to my record.

NattyBumpo · 11-13-2009, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NattyBumpo

I did not get my Milwaukee Green Bay in. I sometimes post my plays before I leave work based on the prevailing line at the time and then bet it on my way home. I generally use the Casinos, not off shore. I didnt notice the time change on this game and didnt get action because it was already underway. An honest mistake that went against me since it was an easy winner, my bad.

This game will not be added to my record.

OK, I misread the score. This will count as a loser on my record since I would have bet it if I could have. What a clusterfuck. Id rather take a loss and look dumb than be accused of trying to mislead or lie.

11-09-2009, 05:50 AM	#1
NattyBumpo Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 556 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Week 1 action 714 - Cal -13.5 vs Murray St. Might seem a little square, but Cal is a seasoned top 20/ possible sweet 16 team at home with top notch guards. Supposedly one of the best backcourts in the country. Doesnt seem like too forbidding of a number to me. Murray is a fine team in my opinion for a lower mid major school but thier conference is where the heart of thier season lies. Not too many at large bids coming from this conference. Cal isnt huge inside but these teams match up evenly sizewise. Dont trust Murray to shoot well from the perimiter in a venue like this out of the gate either. Ill probably be looking to play some totals later but this is the only side Im looking at for Monday. Its not really anything Id play heavy to start off the season but Im gonna give it a shot. Not a lot to go by til we see some action but I think Cal has a good chance to cover by what little I do know.

11-09-2009, 06:44 PM	#4
Dirty Moderator Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 21,191 Thanks: 43 Thanked 19 Times in 19 Posts	GL... I am on Cal as well __________________ GIQ ODDS -- FREE Premium Live Lines Service Get up to 40% Rakeback at GIQ Poker

11-11-2009, 04:44 PM	#11
Dirty Moderator Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 21,191 Thanks: 43 Thanked 19 Times in 19 Posts	Good Luck __________________ GIQ ODDS -- FREE Premium Live Lines Service Get up to 40% Rakeback at GIQ Poker

11-12-2009, 01:54 PM	#15
Dirty Moderator Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 21,191 Thanks: 43 Thanked 19 Times in 19 Posts	Good Luck __________________ GIQ ODDS -- FREE Premium Live Lines Service Get up to 40% Rakeback at GIQ Poker

11-12-2009, 04:01 PM	#16
Micelli Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 10,192 Thanks: 9 Thanked 15 Times in 13 Posts	good luck tonight __________________ Maynard is God

11-09-2009, 01:29 PM	#2
ohmigods Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Detroit Posts: 399 Thanks: 1 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	gL natty, like the play 714 - Cal -13.5 last year 1st rd of Coaches vs Cancer UCLA -37 = ats loss Duke -35 = ats loss Mich -21 = ats win S Ill was no line hard to win ats with numbers in 30s

11-09-2009, 05:25 PM	#3
NattyBumpo Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 556 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Finally got some totals to play: 712 - FIU/N.Carolina over 153.5 714 - Murray St./Cal 137 FIU should employ score fast and often and N.Carolina will probably play along with superior success. Cal scored in the 80s quite consistantly at home in non conference play last year and have the same basic starting line up. Murray (with the same situation regarding experience) can score too. Cal shot nearly 50% in Chico exhibition at home, they are deep and will score (I hope). Murray will be forced to play catch up (I hope). Starting the year off 3-0 (I hope..... ha ha) Best of luck to all.

11-10-2009, 09:41 AM	#5
NattyBumpo Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 556 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Murray very impressive, wouldnt give Cal very many open shots. Both teams looked good in my opinion but Cal could really be in for a struggle against bigger teams with athletes. I will be wary of playing them on the road for the time being also 2-1 for the week so far. Liking Robert Morris as a side. Hoping to catch 10 or more. Anybody think they got a chance to beat the Cuse? Im leaning yes. Wondering if the 1st half is a better play also. Bring input here my brothers.

11-10-2009, 03:47 PM	#6
Justin Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 184 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	I am with you with your thoughts on Robert Morris. RM is interesting because they run kind of a gimmicky offense compared to the rest of there conference, which has proved to be successful. I don't know who they've lost off the top of my head, but watching cuse last night made me think that there big man (don't know his name) will have problems against more expierenced players and become more exposed. Reminds me of UCONN's Center last year, against 6"7 unathletic PF playing C he would do very well but against Pitt's Blair he gets shutdown on offense and owned on defense. I really do think that syracuse has some proving to do before I'll start backing them on the road being a double digit fav against a team they have no expierence with. Syracuse's guard play is what really shocked me last night (i know it was against albany) because they really can run the floor in the open court. It looks like they have finnishers which will prove for some great runs but not sure they are ready to take flight yet. With all that being said and RM first tourney appearance last year expectations couldn't be any higher. I do think that RM will have trouble dealing with the added pressure of expectations, I know if I was a player this is a hugggeeee game for me because of the expectation factor. No one is expecting RM to compete with Cuse except for the coaching staff and players. I just do not believe that the RM players will respond well to this pressure. I lean RM but only at 14 or better. Interesting take on Cal, do you think they will be good fade material on the road or do you think last night was just a case of the first game jitters? GL Natty

11-11-2009, 10:04 AM	#7
Micelli Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 10,192 Thanks: 9 Thanked 15 Times in 13 Posts	Good luck this year bro. And NO, Robert Morris has zero chance of beating Syracuse tonight. Zero

11-11-2009, 02:01 PM	#9
NattyBumpo Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 556 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Wednesday action: 731 - Robert Morris +18 @ Syracuse Although Syracuse looked good in the ATS column and played pretty good on the defensive end against Albany, one must consider Albany is down this year and doesnt seem to have much offensive firepower anyway. Syracuse giving up 21 turnovers and only having 2 more offensive rebounds than Albany are the stats that have me questioning Syracuse at this point. A valid word of caution being that its only one game should be considered though. Robert Morris has lost its best player but returns a nucleus of veterans that gave a credible performance vs Mich.St. in the Tourney last year. Seeing a lot of respectable cappers on RB also. Hope its as good as it looks..... we all know how that goes most of the time. Im considering a possible under (guessing 65 or more as a cap) in the Detroit/Cal 1st half. Any thoughts? Might not be available with the way the books are acting right now so Ill stay on my toes.

11-11-2009, 03:36 PM	#10
NattyBumpo Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 556 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Adding for Wednesday: Detroit/Cal under 66 1st half Think Detroit can keep up a good enough defensive effort in the first half. Cals size issues might make it difficult for them to push the tempo. It will be to Detroits benefit to slow the pace and work patiently for points in the paint. Im not absolutely sure this is how it will go, but thats the way Im guessing it will. I like it best for the 1st half because Im thinking Detroit might get worn down and allow Cal to get more open shots in the second half. Cal could get hot and the pace of the game could go to hell after that.

11-11-2009, 04:49 PM	#12
Justin Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 184 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Good luck tonight, really liking your 1st half play

11-12-2009, 12:16 AM	#13
NattyBumpo Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 556 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Tough sledding Wednesday night. I must admit, I stepped into a land mine with Syracuse. If nothing else they are buying into the defensive side the game plan. And Im thinking theres something else too. Pissed about Detroits approach in the first half. They got lucky to keep it close in the first half and Cals defense seems to be looking bad right now. Cant blame Detroit for saying fuck it in the second half after things got away but Im shocked they took so many bad shots early in possessions in the first half. Oh well, back to the drawing board.

11-12-2009, 10:39 AM	#14
NattyBumpo Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 556 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Wednesday action. 507 - Ga.St. +10 @ NC St. Some good talent at Ga.St. They should have done better last year but obviously they had some issues. Experience at guard and some SEC caliber talent should pan out for a much better result if the chemistry can be there. NC St. should be worse than last year out of the gate. Rebuilding process in the works... I thought 8 was a reasonable number with a lean to Ga.St. Ill take double digits and seeing my man Micelli on em makes it seem even better.

11-13-2009, 12:18 AM	#17
NattyBumpo Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 556 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Friday action: 726 - Towson +1.5 vs Mia.Ohio 748 - Kansas -27 vs Hofstra 759 - N.Iowa -5 @ Denver 763 - N.Mex.St. +7 @ Saint Marys 793 - Wofford +16 @ Pittsburgh Good luck and Peace.

11-13-2009, 04:37 PM	#18
NattyBumpo Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 556 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Adding: 782 - Boise St. -9 vs Loyola Marymount 773 - UW Green Bay +2.5 @ UAB Good luck.

11-13-2009, 06:23 PM	#19
NattyBumpo Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 556 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	I did not get my Milwaukee Green Bay in. I sometimes post my plays before I leave work based on the prevailing line at the time and then bet it on my way home. I generally use the Casinos, not off shore. I didnt notice the time change on this game and didnt get action because it was already underway. An honest mistake that went against me since it was an easy winner, my bad. This game will not be added to my record.

		Gambling IQ > Sports Betting > College Basketball
Week 1 action

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