Horse Racing: Kentucky Derby Not For The Faint-Hearted

June 17, 2008

The horse racing odds and the potential payoffs can be enormous but the risks also are substantial, making Kentucky Derby future book betting on the 134th running of the mile-and-a-quarter classic at Churchill Downs, May 3, a gambling pursuit not doctor-recommended for cardiac patients.

Crusty horse racing veterans recall with regret the 1962 Kentucky Derby future book, at that time called the “winter book,” when Sir Gaylord, who some obtained at odds of 20/1 or more after a solid but less than overwhelming 2-year-old campaign, was the 3/5 winter book choice a day before the Run for the Roses. But Sir Gaylord, who eight years later would be joined at Meadow Stud by a precocious half-brother named Secretariat, suffered a hairline fracture of the sesamoid bone and was retired before the race, having won 10 of 18 lifetime starts. Those who had gleefully taken odds of 20/1 or more on a 3/5 shot could only watch in wagering horror as Decidedly, a colt who Sir Gaylord had beaten in the Everglades Stakes weeks earlier, won the 1962 Kentucky Derby.

Of course, such horse racing setbacks, while cruel and disappointing, have done little to dissuade bettors from pursuing their wagering dreams. In fact, Kentucky Derby futures, which date back to at least 1897 when, in a Jan. 28 article, The New York Times reported that the winter book oddsmaker Turf Exchange had opened Typhoon II as the 6/1 favorite in a field of 95 eligible horses, have become an even more popular betting option for serious horseplayers.

For example, many sportsbooks offer odds on over 400 horses. With that many 3-year-olds, some horses are listed at odds of 500/1 or more. Still, the vigorish is substantial and, as in the Sir Gaylord example, if your choice does not make it to the race, as all but a maximum of 20 horses foaled in 2005 will do, you lose.

With that caveat, bettors still looking to snare a potential contender at overlay odds know now is the time when most 3-year-olds begin their preparation for the first Saturday in May.

Any list of Derby eligible horses starts with War Pass, the undefeated 2-year-old champion of a year ago who was scheduled to make his first start of his 3-year-old campaign in Florida in late February. Given a pedigree that some plasma pundits claim lacks stamina, bettors may want to avoid a short price on War Pass, who is trained by Nick Zito, a two-time winner of the Kentucky Derby.

Another top contender is Pyro, a recent winner of the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. But bettors may not want single-digit odds on a colt who was beaten three straight races a year ago by War Pass. Pyro is trained by Steve Asmussen, the conditioner of 2007 Horse of the Year, Curlin.

Other 3-year-olds drawing attention (and dollars) are Court Vision, Colonel John and El Gato Malo. Court Vision won the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct in November and also is looking for a late February start in Florida. Colonel John and El Gato Malo are California based, meaning they’ve been running on synthetic surfaces, cause for concern, perhaps, given that Churchill Downs offers a traditional dirt track.

Anak Nakal, the winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club, and Cool Coal Man, an allowance winner at Gulfstream, join top stable mate War Pass as contenders from the Zito barn.

Eclipse Award winning trainer Todd Pletcher, who had five colts entered in last year’s 20-horse Kentucky Derby field, has at least a couple of strong contenders for this year’s running. The best may be Monba, a so-called “wiseguy” future book selection that several shrewd bettors seem to admire. Another Pletcher trainee is Cowboy Cal, who might be better suited to run on the grass.

There are two theories for Kentucky Derby future book betting. One is to bet early, taking big prices on developing horses. It’s risky but the rewards can be substantial. The more conservative approach is to at least wait until the horses have raced once or twice, and then take a stab.

Whatever horse racing approach you take, Kentucky Derby future book betting definitely is not for the faint of heart.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com.

Written by Dirty · Filed Under Horse Racing | Leave a Comment 

Kentucky Derby Futures Offer Sports Betting Risks And Rewards

June 17, 2008

The Kentucky Derby always poses sports betting risks, especially now, months before the running of America’s most esteemed horse race. But there’s also the chance for a robust reward if you can place a future book bet on the thoroughbred that will be draped in a garland of red roses in the Churchill Downs winners circle on the first Saturday in May.

Once called the “winter book,” Kentucky Derby futures have been around for decades, offering prospective bettors huge odds at enormous danger. The concern is that your horse never makes it into the starting gate. If that happens, there’s no refund; you lose. But if you can identify a good horse early in the process, say in January, February or March, you still might be able to get 100/1 or more on a 3-year-old that returns considerably less than that on Derby day.

That certainly was the case in 1988 when Winning Colors, who, largely because of her gender, was dismissed at future book odds of 100/1. She won the Run for the Roses, returning a mere $8.80 on Derby day.

Ill-fated Barbaro, who was denied the chance to demonstrate the full scope of his championship potential, wound up paying $14.20 on the day of the 2006 Derby, an attractive price given the ease (a 6 1/2-length triumph), of his victory, but a distant whinny from the 30/1 or so odds being offered in many Nevada racebooks and at sports betting sites around the globe at this time a year ago.

Long a staple of race books, the Kentucky Derby future book expanded nine years ago when the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), a pari-mutuel pool run out of Churchill Downs but offered elsewhere as well, joined the betting fray.

The most recent KDFW pool concluded after four days of betting on Feb. 11. Pool No. 2 will be conducted March 8-11 and the final pool will be run April 12-15. Only 23 individual horses were listed (as opposed to hundreds at most racebooks and sportsbook outlets) in the first pool so it’s not surprising that the mutuel field (all 3-year-olds not among the 23 named thoroughbreds) closed as the favorite at odds of 5/2.

Nobiz Like Shobiz, winner of the Holy Bull Stakes in early February at Gulfstream Park, closed as the individual 8/1 second choice in a pool that drew about $500,000 in wagers. Street Sense, the winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Hard Spun, who was bet down from a 20/1 morning line, each closed at 10/1. Ravel, who won the Sham Stakes, was next in line at 11/1.

What most separates the Kentucky Derby Future Wager from those posted in racebooks and at sportsbook outlets is the option of the field wager. Interestingly, in eight years of Pool 1 wagering, 184 individuals have been named but only 71 of those reached the Kentucky Derby starting gate and only five of them won. Three others, Charismatic, War Emblem and Funny Cide, were members of the Pool 1 mutual field and thus paid way less than they did on Derby Day, let alone their early hefty prices in casino (standard and virtual) future books.

So, given the smaller prices, should a bettor avoid the KDFW and stick with a casino based future book that lists more horses at larger odds?

Not necessarily.

Because the KDFW starts anew with its second and third pools, horses left out of the first pool and lumped into the mutual field sometimes emerge as separate entities in Pool 2 or Pool 3. That was the case with both Giacomo and Funny Cide, who each were offered at more than 50/1 in Pool 3 just three weeks before their successful Kentucky Derby runs.

The above Pool 3 example is in contradiction to the widely held (and mostly correct) view that the longer you dither, the shorter the price you’ll get, especially on a horse that demonstrates potential, as was the case with both Giacomo and Funny Cide.

Thus the shrewd player will view the KDFW not as an alternative to more conventional future book wagers but as another opportunity. Rather than an “either-or” situation, the savvy bettor will study both options, looking for the best way to bet on the Kentucky Derby.

This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering betting on Kentucky Derby and sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com.
Visit The Greek Sports Book for more Sportsbook Articles and Sports Betting information.

Written by Dirty · Filed Under Horse Racing | Leave a Comment 

ECLIPSE AWARDS JOIN HORSE BETTING MENU

June 17, 2008

No matter what time of the day or night you’re reading this, odds are you’re little more than a few mouse clicks away from horse betting somewhere in the world. With action from Hollywood to Hong Kong at more than a 100 racetracks across the globe, you might think that would be more than enough action to satisfy even the most ardent of Mr. Ed followers.

Think again, fetlock breath.

Some enterprising sportsbooks are offering odds on which horses will pick up (not literally, of course) Eclipse Awards for racing excellence when the trophies are handed out in Beverly Hills, California, Jan. 22. It’s a horse of another color, to be sure, a different way for equine bettors to match cold cash to hard convictions.

Even the most adventurous bookmakers aren’t offering odds for every category, some of the honors so obvious that there is no legitimate contest for those awards:

Two-year-old colt or gelding: Street Sense romped by 10 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile destroying a quality field. Although it was his lone stakes victory, there is no other alternative.

Two-year-old filly: Dreaming of Anna is undefeated, has beaten males and rolled in the Breeders’ Cup. While it’s a forgone conclusion that she’ll win the hardware, wouldn’t it be nice if some innovative bet taker gave odds on whether the vote will be unanimous?

Three-year-old colt or gelding: There is great sentiment for injured Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro but hardly anyone seriously believes that Preakness, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Bernardini won get the trophy.

Older male and Horse of the Year: Invasor won four Grade 1 races, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic, leaving no doubt as to his worthiness.

Grass Female: Ouija Board is headed to the Hall of Fame. She should pick up an Eclipse Award on her way.

Those were the easy ones. There is legitimate competition - not to mention spirited horse betting - as to which horses will win in four other categories:

Sprint: Voters would have been reluctant to award the title to Thor’s Echo off a single victory, albeit in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, so his connections wisely took the horse to Maryland where he won the De Francis Dash at Laurel, Nov. 25. That ought to be enough to take the title over Bondonaro and Dubai Escapade.

Three-year-old filly: Pine Island was the division leader heading into the Breeders’ Cup Distaff but broke down in the race and was humanely destroyed. Will voters recall that she had four first and two seconds in six starts before her death or turn to Wait a While, a graded stakes winner on both coasts? That’s not just the question but the bet.

Older female: Like Pine Island, Fleet Indian broke down on Breeders’ Cup day and could not finish the Distaff. Her life was saved and voters will have to overlook six victories in as many starts prior to the BC Distaff if they want to cast ballots for Round Pond, who won that ill-fated race and finished the year with three wins, a second and a third in five starts.

Grass male: This could be the most contentious category of all with as many as six candidates expected to garner votes. The edge has to go to Miesque’s Approval, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Mile (and four other grass races) over Red Rocks, Lava Man, English Channel, The Tin Man, and Aragon.

There’s also a race of sorts among the two-legged set, including trophies for top jockey, trainer, owner, breeder and apprentice jockey. Garrett Gomez has a clear edge over Edgar Prado and Victor Espinoza for top rider while Todd Pletcher, who set a record for earnings, is the conditioner to beat, although there will be sentiment (and votes) for Michael Matz, who overcame the Barbaro tragedy to return to Churchill Downs to saddle Round Pond to a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Other outfits earned more money and had more winners but the best owner statue likely will go to Roy and Gretchen Jackson, who drew praise for their unwavering support of Barbaro, following that colt’s surgery.

A group of turf writers and racing secretaries will make the decision as to which horses will win Eclipse Awards but if you’d rather do some horse betting to win a race than win a vote, the next horse race is just minutes away. For those horse bettors who can’t be bothered with the ballot, every day is Election Day at the races.

This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering horse betting and sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online. Article reproductions must include a link pointing to http://www.thegreek.com.
Visit The Greek Sports Book for more Sportsbook Articles and Sports Betting information.

Written by Dirty · Filed Under Horse Racing | Leave a Comment