Arguably, preseason NFL betting is at its best in the third week. At this point, we get a strong idea of who will play, how much they’ll play and how they’ve played over the last two weeks. Come the fourth preseason game, the starters get to rest and the sports betting system gets scrambled. Time to place a bet on the Packers and Cardinals at the peak time.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

Friday, August 28, 10:00 p.m. ET

University of Phoenix Stadium

Online betting favorite: Cardinals -3.5

I know you’re not supposed to place too much stock into preseason efforts, but the Packers sure look impressive thus far. Aaron Rodgers seems poised to cement himself among the league’s elite signal callers with another banner season. Ryan Grant looks more explosive and the O-line is opening up more holes than before.

I wouldn’t bet that the Arizona offense will struggle once the regulars season starts, but it’s definitely out of sync so far. Kurt Warner has battled hip pain but the running game may be the real problem indirectly hurting the aerial attack. Chris Wells has been banged up, unable to establish himself as a threat to start and unable to push Tim Hightower to work harder.

We know the Cardinals’ defense is mediocre at best; we also know the Packers “D” struggled last season but has plenty of good playmakers. Under its new 3-4 scheme, it looks very strong, having shut down the Bills last week. If the Cards keep playing as they have with the ball over the first two weeks, the Pack could seriously hurt them.

The Cards haven’t shown any reason to warrant a pick and won’t give you a proper return on the price per head. Pick the Packers.

Pick: Packers +3.5

The main bouts on the UFC 102 fight card are high-profile, especially Couture versus Nogueira, but this event is nice and deep, too. The other bouts on the main card are exciting too. Let’s make some picks.

Nate Marquardt (28-8-2) vs Demian Maia (10-0) – Middleweight

UFC 102 odds: Marquardt -180, Maia +150

Nate Marquardt wants a championship rematch against Anderson Silva and he’s certainly working hard to earn his way back. He’s looked dominant of late, brutalizing Martin Kampmann and Wilson Gouveia with his improved striking in his last two fights. His opponent will be tough; undefeated Demian Maia is perhaps the best Jiu-Jitsu fighter in the world. Maia, however, isn’t comfortable in the striking game; he doesn’t have knockout power and isn’t used to getting hit. The versatile Marquardt, who is also very capable on the ground, is a tough matchup for Maia. Bet on the favorite.

Betting services recommend: Marquardt -180

Brandon Vera (10-3) vs Krzysztof Soszynski (18-8-1) – Light heavyweight

UFC 102 odds: Vera -200, Soszynski +160

Brandon “The Truth” Vera is definitely the bigger name in this bout. He’s battled the likes of Keith Jardine and Frank Mir, the latter of whom he knocked out. His opponent, Krzysztof Soszynski, is an injury replacement for Matt Hamill, but you shouldn’t overlook him in your sports picks just for that reason. Vera is a deadly striker with brutal Muay Thai knees, yes, but he’s also known for poor conditioning and overconfidence. The hard-working Soszynski has won six straight fights and is very dangerous on the ground. He should outhustle Vera and win, likely by submission.

Betting services recommend: Soszynski +160

Chris Leben (18-5) vs Jake Rosholt (5-1) – Middleweight

UFC 102 odds: Leben -150, Rosholt +120

You can’t blame the books for making Chris Leben the favorite. He’s an experienced fighter, having faced Anderson Silva and Michael Bisping, and he has legit knockout power. However, most of the good fighters Leben faces beat him. He has trouble with long, rangy types who can box him (Bisping, Silva) or create leverage over him on the ground (Jason McDonald).

Jake Rosholt is 6’1” and fits the build of the types who beat Leben. If Rosholt can avoid Leben’s heavy hands, he should get the better of him, probably via ground-and-pound.

Betting services recommend: Rosholt +120

UFC 102 betting has a pair of intriguing fights headlining this card, which will be held in Portland, and this would be the event to bet on the underdogs.

UFC 102 Fight Card – Saturday, August 29, 10:00 PM ET

Randy Couture (16-9) vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1-1)

Neither of these legends have fought since 2008, when Nogueira lost the interim heavyweight belt to Frank Mir at UFC 91, while Couture had his heavyweight title taken from him by Brock Lesnar in the next event. This bout could signal the end of someone’s career as a main-event draw, and Couture is a -175 favorite in this contest. Despite his record, Nogueira is 13 years younger than Couture, and you would think that would give Nogueira an online betting edge. Another thing: Couture got manhandled by Lesnar, while Nogueira lost to Mir after being hospitalized with a staph infection. “Minotauro” is out to show that loss was a fluke. Make Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira your UFC 102 betting pick as a +145 underdog.

Thiago Silva (13-1) vs Keith Jardine (14-5-1)

Silva is well versed in the art of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai, but he lost to fellow Brazilian Lyoto Machida at UFC 94 in a light heavyweight title bout via knockout.  Jardine (the “Dean of Mean”) has dropped three of his last fights, and he seems to fare better as the sports betting software underdog, as wins over Chuck Liddell and Brandon Vera show. Jardine is a tough customer who doesn’t go down easily, but Silva is known as one of the most powerful fighters in the light heavyweight division: 10 of his 13 wins have come by knockout, including nine in the first round. Silva’s fights don’t last very long, and Jardine has a chance if he can stretch the fight out and test Silva’s stamina. Jardine comes into this fight as a -160 favorite, which is a strange position for him, and Silva will be very hungry to recover from an embarrassing loss to Machida. This fight shouldn’t make it to the third round. Put Thiago Silva in next week’s sports picks as a +130 underdog.

Attention, Layman UFC 102 fight card fans; The Jardine vs Silva fight is probably the bout for you. The other major fights on Saturday’s card – Couture/Nogueira, Maia Marquardt – could primarily take place on the ground. If you like striking, you’ll enjoy Keith Jardine battling Thiago Silva, as both guys like to stand. Let’s break down the big bout.

Keith Jardine (14-5-1) vs Thiago Silva (13-1)

UFC 102 odds: Jardine -155, Silva +125

STRIKING

Both guys consider themselves strikers first and ground guys second. Jardine’s game is all about timing; he confuses opponents with his bizarre stance and strikes when they don’t expect it. His leg and head kicks are also strong. The edge, however, goes to Silva, simply because he’s as good of a finisher as anyone in the division. Thanks to the raw power behind his Muay Thai knees and punches, eight of his last nine wins have come via first-round knockout. His strikes simply inflict more damage.

Edge: Silva

GROUND GAME

Neither guy spends a lot of time on the ground, so It’s difficult to give an advantage to either fighter. Jardine is the better defender but Silva’s Jiu-Jitsu likely gives him a small overall advantage. It’s practically a tossup, but I give a tiny edge to Silva.

Edge: Silva

DEFENSE

No contest here – Keith Jardine is better at dodging and avoiding big strikes, even if he does get caught once in a while. Silva’s wild, attacking style always makes his fights worth the price per head but also leaves him open to big shots, so he’s more likely to move the wrong way and eat a big punch or kick.

Edge: Jardine

INTANGBILES

The only really tough opponent Thiago Silva has faced is Lyoto Machida, and Machida knocked him out at the end of the first round. But Jardine’s recent opponents include Rampage Jackson, Wanderlei Silva, Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin, the latter two of which he beat to defy most sports picks. Silva won’t scare him. On the flip side, Silva has a lot to prove after losing to Machida and could be nervous.

Edge: Jardine

OUTLOOK

Jardine is a craftier, smarter, more experienced fighter but, unluckily for him, Silva is the one type of fighter he hasn’t figured out. Aggressive Muay Thai types who walk forward have overwhelmed him in the past – Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander both knocked him out in less than a minute. Since Silva fits that same style, he should give Jardine major trouble and possibly knock him out in the first round.

Pick: Silva +125

The UFC 102 fight card is days away and fight fans of all types are excited for the main event, which features two of the greatest heavyweights ever to grace the Octagon. Who has the upper hand in the Couture/Nogueira fight?

RANDY “THE NATURAL” COUTURE
Record: 16-5
Notable victories: Chuck Lidell, Tito Ortiz, Vitor Belfort
UFC 102 odds: -165

STRENGTHS: Thanks to his Olympic-caliber Greco-Roman wrestling background, Randy Couture is a master at using his body weight to control opponents — even people bigger than him, as he showed when he beat Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga. He’s a great clincher who smothers opponents and bludgeons them with his dirty boxing. He’s also excellent at defending against submissions on the ground – which will come in handy against the Jiu-Jitsu master Nogueira.

WEAKNESSES: He’s taken some bad knockout punches in his career — enough that his chin isn’t what it once was, so he’ll have to be careful not to get caught with a big shot. Couture also looked like he’d finally lost a step in his last fight, a loss to Brock Lesnar. He is 46, after all.

ANTONIO RODRIGO “MINOTAURO” NOGUEIRA
Record: 31-5-1
Notable victories: Josh Barnett, Mirko Cro Cop, Dan Henderson
UFC 102 odds: +135

STRENGTHS: Some betting services recommend Nogueira because he’s arguably the greatest heavyweight submission artist of all time. He takes a beating most nights, but never loses focus on his goal of exploiting even the tiniest mistake from an opponent. He’s used that skill to survive and beat similar fighters to Couture, including Dan Henderson and Josh Barnett. His boxing is better than advertised and he’s 13 years younger than his opponent, so he should have a speed advantage. 

WEAKNESSES: Even though he’s bigger, Nogueira may not be as physically strong as Couture. He could get beat up if Couture gets on top and starts a ground-and-pound assault. He also looked sluggish and very old for his age in his loss to Frank Mir last December. 

OUTLOOKNogueira is younger, faster, and able to win in more ways. Bet on him to finish Randy Couture and move back up the heavyweight ladder. 

Sports pick: Nogueira +135

The Sacramento Monarchs were in the WNBA playoffs for seven years straight, while the New York Liberty were in the Eastern Conference finals last season, but they would seem to be first teams out of this year’s race following losses on Friday.

Minnesota Lynx 100, Sacramento Monarchs 95

The Monarchs have been in the Western Conference basement since the first week of the season, and hinted at getting back into the race by winning four of five while limiting opponents to 70 points per game.

But the Monarch defense regressed to early season form, and after giving up 103 points to Atlanta and then 100 to Minnesota, Sacramento has dropped to 9-20 and are probably done.

The Lynx hit a team record 16 three-pointers in 28 tries. Kelly Miller was 4-for-4 on treys, and led the Lynx with 18 points.

Minnesota led by as much as 19 points with 2:36 left in the third, but Sacramento whittled the lead to 96-93 with 31.8 seconds left. Minnesota -2.5 no longer felt like a lock, but the Lynx hit four free throws to close.

The Lynx are four games under .500 at 12-16, but that is so far good enough for the #4 playoff spot in the West. It was just their second win ATS in August. Averaging 82 points per game, the Lynx are 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS when they hit 95.

The Monarchs, traditionally a grinding defensive team, are 6-4 O/U when they cover the spread, and 10-7 O/U when they do not.

Chicago Sky 96, New York Liberty 77

The Sky, a 3-point favorite, led 62-57 with 2:39 left in the third quarter, and then went on a 26-7 run. The Liberty made eight turnovers during that stretch, leading to 11 Sky points.

The WNBA East is such a close race that Chicago moved from 6th place in the standings to 4th with the win. The Liberty are still just 2.5 behind the last playoff spot, but are trailing three teams.

New York had covered or pushed in five straight road games until Friday. Including Friday’s over, the Liberty are 2-4 O/U in road games since Anne Donovan took over as coach.

Chicago maintains the worst ATS record in the East. Their 10-4 home record SU belies inconsistency at the sportsbook — the Sky are 4-4 ATS in their last eight home games, 3-3 O/U in their last six at home.

It hasn’t been reflected on the NFL week 1 odds quite yet, but it will have a big impact on the season. Both the Minnesota Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles have made some moves recently that will sends some tremors through the NFL landscape and the NFL odds makers will have to adjust.

So far, we’ve seen a brief Brett Favre stint for the Minnesota Vikings last week in their second exhibition game and for the first time in over two years we’ll see Michael Vick step on the field this week.

The real question is: which player will have the bigger impact on the NFC?

Michael Vick

Not many NFL predictions picked the Eagles to be the team that signed Vick but now it sort of makes sense. The Eagles offense has always been strong but it’s always lacked a little bit of something. Vick could be that something, especially if they employ him in the Wildcat formation.

Vick is not a very accurate quarterback. That we know. But when you put Vick in to run the Wildcat, in comparison to all the running backs who were put in that position last year – such as Ronnie Brown, Jerious Norwood and etc – Vick is the best passer and maybe athlete in the formation.

Brett Favre

The Minnesota Vikings made a surprise signing of their own when they inked Brett Favre just weeks after apparently closing the book on him.

Favre is an upgrade over quarterbacks Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson right now but will he be the right answer long term?

The New York Jets thought they were Super Bowl contenders when they signed Favre last year but he hurt his shoulder mid-season and became a liability. On the flip side, the Vikings other two quarterbacks on the roster have been liabilities for their respective teams in the past.

The Vikings just need some consistency at the position and they need to have the threat of a deep ball. Favre can give them that. Some people say he’s hurt, but then keep in mind that it’s the NFL’s ironman you are talking about.

Outlook

Both quarterbacks should make big impacts but Favre should have the bigger role since he is playing full time. Both the Vikings and Eagles have been popular among sports picks for the Super Bowl.

Today in the Daily Sports Roundup: The Red Sox play host to the White Sox, the Angels look to tame the Tigers, and the Astros continue their series in St. Louis.

Meeting up on the diamond . . .

Gavin Floyd (10-8, 3.98 ERA) will take on Tim Wakefield (11-3, 4.31 ERA) on Wednesday night as the White Sox continue their road series against the Red Sox. Righthander Floyd was beaten by the Orioles in his last trip to the mound, surrendering four earned runs over 7 1-3 innings of work. Righthander Wakefield will be activated from the DL (strained back) for Wednesday’s start. Wakefield last pitched back on July 8, holding the Athletics to three runs over his six innings.

Also on the American League schedule for Wednesday: Cleveland at Kansas City, Texas at the Yankees, Tampa Bay at Toronto, Baltimore at Minnesota, Oakland at Seattle, and Detroit at the Angels. Edwin Jackson (10-5, 2.86 ERA) will get the ball for the Tigers in that contest; righthander Jackson is 3-0 with three no-decisions in his last six starts. Joe Saunders (9-7, 5.33 ERA) counters for L.A.; lefthander Saunders has been on the disabled list with a sore shoulder.

In National League action on Wednesday the Astros will send Roy Oswalt (7-4, 3.83 ERA) to the hill in St. Louis against Joel Pineiro (12-9, 3.15 ERA). Righthander Oswalt picked up his first win in a month last time out, holding the Diamondbacks scoreless over seven innings of work. Righthander Pineiro beat the Padres in his last trip to the mound (one earned run in 7 2-3 innings pitched)., and St. Louis has managed to pick up the victory in each of his last nine outings.

Rounding out the NL slate for Wednesday: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh, San Diego at Atlanta, the Mets at Florida, Washington at the Cubs, Cincinnati at Milwaukee, Arizona at San Francisco, and the Dodgers at Colorado. Randy Wolf (8-6, 3.34 ERA) will take on Josh Fogg (0-1, 2.25 ERA) in that last matchup. Righthander Fogg has been pitching out of Colorado’s bullpen this season, but with Aaron Cook on the disabled list he’ll be pressed into action as a starter on Wednesday.

A winning streak will be on the line for the Texas Rangers on Wednesday when they battle the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

Derek Holland will be the starting pitcher for the Rangers on this day. Lefthander Holland is 5-6 this season with a 4.52 ERA.

Holland’s opponent in this one will be Andy Pettitte. The Yankees lefthander has a 4.25 ERA to go along with a 10-6 record this season.

Oddsmakers currently have the Yankees listed as 185-moneyline favorites versus the Rangers, while the game’s total is sitting at 10.

Elvis Andrus was 3-for-5 with three runs batted in, as the Rangers nipped the Yankees 10-9 on Tuesday night.

Texas cashed as +165 road underdogs, while the game played OVER the 9.5-run total posted by oddsmakers.

Michael Young went 2-for-5 with a two-run dinger and three RBIs for the Rangers, as Kevin Millwood recorded the win after giving up five runs over 5 2-3 innings for Texas.

Jorge Posada was 2-for-4 with a two-run homer and three RBIs for New York, while Joba Chamberlain was roughed up for seven runs over four innings to take the loss for the Yankees.

Current streak:
Texas has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Texas: 70-54 SU
New York: 78-47 SU

Texas most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing NY Yankees are 6-4
After playing NY Yankees are 5-5
After a win are 5-5

New York most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Texas are 5-5
After playing Texas are 5-5
After a loss are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Texas is 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games at home
NY Yankees are 16-5 SU in their last 21 games
NY Yankees are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing Texas

Next up:
NY Yankees home to Texas, Thursday, August 27

Most of the sports betting attention is being paid to NFL betting and the upcoming UFC 102 fight card but since we’re looking ahead, we may as well take a look at the fourth and final grand slam of the tennis season: the U.S. Open.

Once again, all eyes will be on Roger Federer to win the tournament and for the most part, it’s hard to argue with him. His odds are as low as +180, which seems like a ridiculously low price to win a tennis tournament, but don’t forget who we are talking about here. Federer is the No. 1 player in the world and has been – for the most part – over the last five years. During that time, he’s won a record five consecutive US Opens. On top of that, he’s won two of the first three Grand Slams this year and his one loss was in the Australian Open finals.

Obviously, he’ll be among everyone’s sports picks but the reason to bet him isn’t just that he’s that good, but also that there is no one else to give him a run.

Andy Murray tried to do exactly that at the US Open last year but he got crushed in the finals by Federer. Federer won in straight sets and Murray only won nine games overall. Murray also blew his best chance to win Wimbledon (to this point) as he was upset in the semifinals by Andy Roddick.

Rafael Nadal is typically the biggest competitor to Federer but he’s had some knee problems recently. His knee injury led to him being upset at the French Open and then he had to pull out of Wimbledon completely. He’s back on the Tour now but Nadal had a disappointing out at the Rogers Cup in Montreal, which isn’t encouraging any bettors. Furthermore, he won’t be among many sports picks since the hard courts at Flushing Meadows won’t be kind to his knees.

That leaves a few outside competitors like Andy Roddick, who had a great showing at Wimbledon but has left everyone skeptical since, or Novak Djokovic, who continually disappoints in Grand Slams.

Federer is the best in the world and to stop him, someone will have to perform above and beyond the call of duty. At this point, it doesn’t look like there is anyone capable of that.