WHAT YOU SAVE IS WHAT YOU EARN
June 26, 2008
WHAT YOU SAVE IS WHAT YOU EARN
Joe Gavazzi, Private Players of Pittsburgh
WHEN EXPERIENCE MATTERS MOST
June 26, 2008
WHEN EXPERIENCE MATTERS MOST
Joe Gavazzi & The Private Players of Pittsburgh
1-800-678-7529
One of the key factors used to handicap early season College Football is the number of returning starters on each team. Clearly, experience is an important factor in September handicapping. However, much like most other theories relying on technical handicapping, using parameters that are too “tight”, or well-defined, can skew or cloud results. More importantly it might eliminate plays that are worthy of investment. Let’s take a look at a more specific example.
Let’s assume that your returning starter theory includes the following:
1. 7+ R.S. on each side of the ball
2. A returning quarterback
3. 3+ members of the OL and DL returning
4. A 5 starter edge vs. your opponent
Looks pretty sweet, doesn’t it? And, yes, those parameters would turn you a profit most every year.
But now let’s look at some factors that might prevent our system from attaining maximum profit.
1. Our team has a new coach or systems.
2. Injuries in August or September have depleted our starters ranks.
3. Many of our retuning starters are only sophomores with one year experience.
4. Our opponent returns former starters, who didn’t play because of injury last year.
Our neat little package with it’s specific parameters doesn’t look quite so pretty anymore. How can we avoid such a trap?
As is mostly the case when relying on a technical system with well defined specific parameters, a bit of common sense and a greater overview can often prove to be beneficial.
In this situation that means further examination of the variables above.
1. Is our team operating the same offense and defense schemes with little or no change in the coaching staff.
2. Have pre-season or early season injuries thinned the ranks of the returning starters of our play on team.
3. Does the opponent have “hidden starters” that return from a year off.
Most importantly, however, is this critical factor. Remember, this situation is about PLAYING ON THE EXPERIENCED TEAM. In this handicapper’s opinion the most important, and often overlooked factor, is VETERAN STARTERS and DEPTH. For as you’ll see season after season it’s the teams laden with juniors and seniors in their 2 deep roster that most often outperform expectations in early season play. In addition, you should consider the number of letterman LOST from each team.
In conclusion, simply relying on an outdated list of returning starters will most likely leave you disappointed. You can greatly improve results by searching for teams who have continuity in coaching, veteran line play, and are loaded with upperclassmen among those receiving the most playing time.
In short, EXPERIENCE MATTERS. I know, I’m beginning my 30th year in the business. If you agree, call me at 1-800-678-7529. I’ll make you a winner. Joe Gavazzi, Private Players of Pittburgh. Or go to our website www.thegreengorilla.com
SPORTS BETTING: WANNA BET THAT BARKLEY CAN’T STOP
June 18, 2008
Golfer John Daly isn’t the only well-known athlete who sometimes has gotten into trouble because of a heavyweight appetite for gambling. Charles Barkley, no Twiggy himself, also bit off a bit more wagering wafer than he could chew, recently.
It’s all part of our latest round of quotes from the world of sports and sports betting:
“For right now, the next year or two, I’m not going to gamble. Just because I can afford to lose money doesn’t mean I should do it.”
–Former NBA star and TNT commentator Charles Barkley, after he’d paid off a well-publicized $400,000 gambling debt at Wynn Las Vegas. Two years? Can I bet the “under?”
“We filed a criminal complaint. Within 24 hours Mr. Jones found a way to make restitution. Case closed.”
–David Roger, Clark County District Attorney, confirming that suspended NFL cornerback Adam “Pacman” Jones had paid off a $20,000 gambling debt incurred at Caesars Palace. Hey, given the numbers, shouldn’t Jones be giving Barkley gambling lessons?
“Tim Donaghy’s tragic fall from grace cannot be explained without understanding the psychological demon that he lived with for many years.”
–John Lauro, attorney for the former NBA referee, who pleaded guilty last year in a betting scandal, in a letter to US District Judge Carol Bagley Amon, urging probation for his client
“The letter is the desperate act of a convicted felon who is hoping to avoid prison time, and the only thing it proves is that Mr. Donaghy is no more trustworthy today than he was when he was breaking the law by betting on NBA games.”
–Joel Litvin, the NBA’s president of league and basketball operations, refuting Donaghy’s attorney
“Don’t you love the NBA? It’s the only sports where both the commentators and the referees are compulsive gamblers.”
–Mike Bianchi, The Orlando Sentinel
“One of the first things that came to my mind was, ‘Good thing we brought a second javelin.’”
–Richard Vance, a coach at a Utah high school track championship in Provo after a javelin that pierced a journalist’s leg was successfully cut off at the scene. Yes, he was kidding.
“Relatively, 45 matches with unusual betting patterns we didn’t find a troubling number considering all the matches that occurred since 2003.”
–Larry Scott, president of the WTA Tour, responding to the findings of an independent review panel that examined betting corruption in tennis. Yeah, it’s not a big number unless you happened to be on the wrong wagering side of one or more of those fixed matches.
“I made an embarrassing and regrettable decision this weekend…”
–Nathan Smith, captain of the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins of the American Hockey League, who said he was acting on a bet after police arrested him for running naked on a downtown Scranton street. Guess he lost that bet, right?
“Certainly, hundreds, and potentially thousands of California consumers may have been defrauded.”
–State Senator Leland Yee (D-San Francisco), responding to the revelation that because of a “software glitch,” the No. 20 horse was left off every one of the random 7,000 computer-generated quick-pick superfecta tickets on the Kentucky Derby. To refresh your memory, Big Brown, the Derby winner, was No. 20.
“I don’t know about you but every time I read another sordid detail about Roger Clemens I think to myself, ‘Maybe Barry Bonds isn’t such a bad guy after all.’ At least when Bonds is accused of having an affair, it’s with an adult.”
–Scott Ostler, The San Francisco Chronicle
“I want to spend more time with Brett Favre’s family.”
–One of the reasons given by Annika Sorenstam, appearing on the David Letterman Show, for retiring from golf
“…this apparent breakdown of the system must be dealt with aggressively. We must protect the public at all costs as integrity of our wagering is job one.”
–Richard B. Shapiro, Chairman, California Horse Racing Board. OK, where to horse betting get in line for their refunds?
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online.
Bettors Go All In On 2008 World Series Of Poker
June 18, 2008
Poker betting is one thing but wagering on poker betting is quite another. And yet that’s the challenge gamblers will face when they match cash to conviction on the 39th World Series of Poker in
Although some books have prices for which poker players will win each of the 53 preliminary card games, it is Event #54, the $10,000 buy-in World Championship of No-Limit Texas Hold ‘em, known as the Main Event, that not only attracts the most poker players but the most action from bettors, as well.
That competition gets underway July 3 at the Rio All-Suite Hotel with the Final Table determined on July 14. The nine players who advance to the Final Table will return to the
Poker exploded as a TV and gambling essential a half-decade ago when new technology allowed viewers watching at home to see each player’s hole cards. Bookmakers, who tried to keep pace with the phenomena, have been swamped of late as the number of entries to the Main Event swelled to a record 8,773 in 2006. Try making a future book involving that many names!
So, given the huge fields and the fact that an established professional poker player has not won the Main Event since 2001, books have taken to offering prices on players merely making it to the Final Table. (Odds on winning the top prize will follow after that).
The lowest odds on any individual reaching the Final Table is 100/1, a price afforded to 1987 and 1988 Main Event champion Johnny Chan, 1989 winner Phil Hellmuth and 2001 champ Carlos Mortensen, as well as such highly regarded poker players a Gus Hansen, Daniel Negreanu and Allen Cunningham.
Scotty Nguyen, the champion in 1998, and Chris Ferguson, the winner in 2000, each are offered at odds of 125/1 to reach the Final Table, the same price as the colorfully named Huck Seed, who captured the Main Event title in 1996.
Doyle “Texas Dolly” Brunson, who competed in the first World Series of Poker Main Event back in 1970 and a two-time champion (1976-77) in his own right, is 150/1 to be one of the last nine players left standing, er, sitting at the Final Table.
Last year’s Main Event winner, Jerry Yang, is 300/1 to make a second straight Final Table while the 2006 champion, Jamie Gold, who pocketed a record $12 million, is held at odds of 200/1. Joe Hachem, the winner in 2005, and Greg Raymer, who it won it all a year earlier, each are listed at 150/1 while the aptly named Chris Moneymaker, the 2003 title holder, opened at 200/1.
At odds of 150/1, Jennifer Harmon has the lowest odds to make the Final Table of any woman while Gabe Kaplan, 200/1, of “Welcome Back, Kotter” fame, is among the celebrities who have made a successful switch from entertainment to poker.
In addition to straight Final Table wagering, many bookmakers also are offering a series of proposition bets on the Main Event. One of the more interesting asks bettors to predict the size of the field. A record field of more than 9,000 is rated at 7/2, the same price as a field of 6,500-6,999. You get 4/1 on 7,000-7,499 entries and 5/1 on either 6,000-6,499 (the range for last year’s Main Event) or 7,500-7999.
If you think the bottom is about to fall out on poker, you can get 250/1 that the field numbers a paltry 2,000-2,499.
With 87 countries represented at last year’s World Series of Poker, there also are prices on various nationalities reaching the Final Table. For example, you can get 2/1 that a Swede is among the last nine players and 9/2 that a player from
Given that the World Series of poker is about the only game where you can bet on people betting, most sports betting fans probably will want to play a hand or two.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online.
Sports And Sports Betting Gets Some Lip Service
June 18, 2008
The practice of sports betting always has attracted a percentage of players who not only are loose with a dollar but a quote, too.
Thanks goodness for that because we never could make up this stuff:
“We had no money on him. I thought he was going out for a run to keep himself warm.”
–Michael O’Leary, billionaire CEO of Ryanair, Europe’s biggest low-cost airline, trying to explain why he failed to back his own horse, Hear The Echo, when he won the Irish Grand National steeplechase at odds of 33/1 in March
“If I wasn’t playing, maybe I’d have a go.”
–Geoff Ogilvy, showing that if he weren’t a great golfer he might be a pretty good bettor, when informed that, after two rounds of play, his odds were 5/1 of winning the CA Championship in Doral, Florida last month over Tiger Woods, who trailed Ogilvy by just one shot at that point. Woods, the 1/2 favorite, finished fifth, two strokes behind Ogilvy.
“Historically, his tournament success in Major championships has been awesome but more like 29 percent. Even at that remarkable win rate, the chances of a Tiger Woods Grand Slam in any given year are only about 0.7 percent, or about 142/1.”
–Bowling Green professor Christopher Rump, using a mathematical principle called the “Markov chain” to calculate Woods’ odds of winning the Grand Slam of golf before this year’s Masters
“We’re not in the business of trying to give anything away here.”
–Tony Sinisi, oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, explaining why Woods’ pre-Masters odds of winning the Grand Slam were only 9/2
“New motto for The Players Championship now that Tiger Woods will skip it while rehabbing after knee surgery: We buried our ratings at wounded knee.”
–Mike Bianchi, Orlando Sentinel
“Q: If a baseball player’s brief stint in the Major Leagues is known as “cup of coffee,” what do you call 21-loss Coppin State’s two hour stay in the NCAA Tournament?
“A: Coppin a feel.”
–Dwight Perry, The Seattle Times
More from Perry…
“Former cycling champion Tammy Thomas had all the earmarks off hardcore depo-testosterone use, a Colorado endocrinologist testified in Thomas’ perjury trial, as in such male characteristics as chest hair, a full beard and a deep voice—-not to mention incessant channel-surfing with the TV remote.”
“Actually this story isn’t entirely new. There were some whispers around the league when Debbie Clemens hit consecutive 400-foot homer off Heidi Klum and Elle MacPherson.”
–Reggie Hayes, the Fort Wayne, Indiana News-Sentinel, offering his take on the allegation of trainer Brain McNamee that he injected Roger Clemens’ wife with human growth hormone before a Sports Illustrated swimsuit shoot
More from Hayes…
“Danica Patrick will take aim at what many believe to be a truly impossible goal: becoming the first female athlete to film more commercials than Peyton Manning.”
“Becky Hammon, from South Dakota, plays one season of pro basketball in Russia and now she’s been signed to play for Russia’s Olympic team. The USA gets a case of vodka and a female hammer thrower to be named later.”
–Scott Ostler, San Francisco Chronicle
More from Ostler…
“Alex Rodriguez makes $28 million this season, while the entire Marlins’ payroll is $21.8 million. What’s worse, I hear that A-Rod hit on all their wives.”
“There are six people ahead of Jeff Kent for most career hits against Greg Maddux, a handful.”
–Padres announcer Matt Vasgersian, who apparently was bon with a rare, six-fingered hand
“I never believe any of those stats. One minute the stat guy is eating his hot dog, and the next he’s writing stuff down.”
–Jeremy Roenick, San Jose Sharks, to the Calgary Sun, after the stat sheet listed his team with 18 giveaways in its Stanley Cup playoff opener against the Calgary Flames
“There is urgency to act because sporting ethic is at risk. It is an issue as important as the fight against doping.”
–Jean-Francois Vilotte, director general of the French Tennis Association, explaining why French Open organizers have filed suit to try to ban online gambling companies from offering bets on the Grand Slam tournament
Wouldn’t a more equitable solution be to police and punish complicit players rather than deny wagering to honest sports betting fans?
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online.
SPORTSBOOKS AIM TO BOOST OLYMPIC SUMMER GAMES BETTING
June 18, 2008
Betting on the Olympics always has paled in comparison to the pomp and circumstance of the global extravaganza itself but this year sportsbooks are hoping that, with some innovative offerings, they can transform the five ring athletic competition into a three ring circus of wagering.
Unlike, say, the Super Bowl, where hardcore pointspreads and totals give way to a bevy of proposition wagers as the big event draws nearer, because gamblers know so little about the participants, oddsmakers and sportsbooks work the Olympics in reverse, offering a series of mostly generalized props until their betting audience becomes more familiar with the athletes scheduled to compete in the Summer Games in Beijing, China, starting August 8.
So, while odds on how many medals American swimmer Michael Phelps wins and which countries take home gold in team sports such as basketball and soccer are sure to follow, for now at least, gamblers will have to get an early betting jump on the games in a number of other ways.
Two staples of Olympic betting-which nation will amass the most total medals and which country will take home the most gold neckwear-—already are posted on several sportsbook web sites. Interestingly, while the powerful team from the United States is a 2/3 favorite to win the most total medals, host country China is a 1/2 favorite to collect the most Gold Medals. Team
We’re still more than three months from the start of the Games but bet takers are offering a wager on the representative of which country is first to break a world record in track and field. The
You also can get 16/1 on anyone winning four or more Gold Medals in the track and field competition.
While we couldn’t find any future book prices for team sports such as soccer or basketball, some sportsbooks have odds on which two teams will meet for the Gold Medal in men’s and women’s volleyball.
On the women’s side,
Although we couldn’t give a shuttlecock about the sport, we did find one Internet wagering site that actually had future book odds on the men’s badminton winner. Sorry, you’re on your own here.
And British sportsbooks, displaying a bit of stiff upper lip parochialism, were offering odds of 20/1 on the
The cache of the title of “World’s Fastest Man” has prodded sportsbooks into issuing odds for the Olympic 100 meter dash. American Tyson Gay, who recently ran 9.84, is a 6/5 favorite to beat Jamaican Asafa Powell, the 7/4 second choice, who owns the world record for the distance at 9.74. This may be the only event that takes less time to complete than it does to place your bet.
As spring bleeds into summer and the Olympic Games draw closer, look for bookmakers to add dozens of events to their wagering rosters, including many in track and field and swimming, as well as a number of team sports. If history is a guide, they’ll also have a little fun along the way, offering an over/under prop on the number of positive tests for banned or illegal substances.
Olympic betting should be as varied and interesting as the Games themselves.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online.
Why The NFL Draft Matters
June 18, 2008
The greatest non-sporting event in sports, the NFL Draft, should lure gridiron-starved NFL fans and, far more tellingly, savvy NFL betting fans, to their TV screens when the annual, dust-off-the-Barcalounger, grab-the-giant-Doritos-bag, telethon-like coverage begins April 26.
While it’s true that the price for indulgence is having to listen to ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. say “You look at” hundreds of times, (the over/under is 253 1/2) it may be worth it, especially if you’re one of those millions of fans who find NFL games a bit more enjoyable when you have a financial interest in the outcome.
With more than two dozen starters (11 on offense, 11 on defense, a placekicker, a punter, one or two kick returners and a long snapper), unlike basketball, it’s difficult for one or two players to have an immediate impact on the won/lost (and, by extension, the pointspread) fortunes of a team.
Difficult, but not impossible.
Drafted 11th by the Steelers in 2004, as a rookie, Ben Rothlisberger led the Steelers to a straight up (SU) regular season record of 15-1. More importantly, Pittsburgh also was 11-5 against the spread (ATS). A year later, the Steelers won the Super Bowl.
Eli Manning was drafted No. 1 overall and went to the Giants in 2004. Manning was more of a work in progress but since his arrival in Gotham, the Giants are 42-28 ATS, including a Super Bowl Championship last season.
Tom Brady arrived in New England via the draft as a sixth round pick in 2000. Three Super Bowl titles later the Patriots are 83-58-4 ATS the last eight seasons.
While a quarterback can have the greatest impact on a team, given the closeness of the games, almost any key player�-a shutdown corner, a pass blocking left tackle, an aggressive inside linebacker, even a placekicker�-can make a difference. In reality, the difference between going 10-6 and making the playoffs and being 6-10 and home for the New Year, is not just four games but four plays.
That’s right.
Consider that Philadelphia wound up 8-8 last year and out of the playoffs, largely because the Eagles lost four games (and won none) decided by a field goal. That’s not just four games but four plays: One dropped pass in the end zone, one fumble near the goal line, one pass interference call on third down, one holding penalty on a TD run, one wide field goal attempt, one missed tackle all could cost a game. Could one good player make a difference? You bet.
Miami lost six games by three points or less last season.
Washington and Philadelphia each were involved in 11 games decided by eight points or less.
The NY Giants owe their Super Bowl Championship to three playoff wins: A 4-point victory over Dallas, a 3-point triumph over Green Bay and a 3-point win over New England. Do one thing wrong, botch or fail to make one play in any of those games and some other team winds up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
In fact, close games are the norm in the NFL with 56 games decided by a field goal or less and an additional 68 games decided by eight points or less. Those 124 games represent just 124 plays that could have altered the outcome of those contests.
So, whether you’re betting futures, over/under regular season victories or are a game bettor, it’s important to realize that the difference between cashing a ticket and ripping it in half is as fragile as the result of one play.
That’s more than enough reason why NFL betting devotees will be oiling the recliner, stacking up on snacks and taking notes when the NFL Draft is conducted later this month.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports.
Merger Could Boost Indycar Betting
June 18, 2008
If NASCAR betting is as powerful as a jet airplane turbo and betting on Formula One racing has been as steady as a Mercedes transmission, then IndyCar betting - with the notable exception of the Indianapolis 500 - traditionally has been about as potent as a lawn motor engine.
Open wheel proponents, who recently ended their debilitating 12-year feud when the Indy Car League and the Champ Car World Series put aside their differences to merge into the IndyCar Series this year, will be hoping to get back some of those fans who, like drivers such as Dario Franchitti, Pablo Montoya and Sam Hornish, have deserted to NASCAR over the past two or three years. Left unsaid is that the sport also would benefit greatly if motor racing betting fans returned to the fold as well.
On the latter point, sportsbooks can’t be blamed for not doing their part, establishing a future book for the 2008 IndyCar season that began in Miami, March 29, in addition to posting individual racecar odds for each the sport’s 16 events. Television, an incalculable and invaluable component to the ultimate success of any sports betting promotion, also will do its part with ABC (7), ESPN (2) and ESPN2 (7) dividing the neck twisting broadcast duties.
The IndyCar Series also has a not-so hidden weapon in 100-pound Danica Patrick, the raven-haired driver who attracts viewers (and, hopefully, bettors) with her cover-girl good looks and feisty racetrack demeanor.
Let’s look at the major contenders for the 2008 IndyCar Series Championship (future book odds in parentheses):
Scott Dixon (7/2): Dixon, who lost the 2007 IRL title to Franchitti by 13 points when he ran out of gas on the last lap of the last race of the season, got off to a quick start with a fortuitous victory in the season opener in Miami. Dixon, the 2003 champion, has 11 career wins and finished in the top five 13 times in 2007.
Tony Kanaan (4/1): The 2004 IRL champion has won a dozen races on the open wheel circuit and appeared headed for another triumph when he was involved in an accident while leading on lap 193 of the 200-lap Gainsco Auto Insurance event, March 29.
Dan Weldon (9/2): A teammate of Dixon’s from the strong Chip Ganassi stable, Dixon won both the IRL title and Indy 500 in 2005 and was second in 2006. He has 10 career victories.
Helio Castroneves (9/2): The reigning “Dancing With the Stars” champion also is pretty good on wheels, counting back-to-back Indy 500 triumphs in 2001-02 among his 12 victories.
Marco Andretti (12/1): A third generation driver with one of the sport’s most famous pedigrees, Andretti slipped a bit last year after winning a race and finishing second in the 2006 Indy 500 at age 19. He joins Kanaan, Patrick and Hideki Mutoh as a member of the powerful Andretti Green team.
Justin Wilson (16/1): Formula 3000 champion Wilson finished second in the standings (to former teammate Sebastian Bourdais who left for the Formula One circuit) the past two years in the now defunct Champ Car Series.
Danica Patrick (20/1): After 49 starts, Patrick still is looking for her first victory, though not her first fan.
With the exception of the Indy 500, where propositions abound and there are dozens of ways to wager on the Memorial weekend classic, bookmakers still are in first gear when it comes to IndyCar betting, for the most part, waiting to see if gamblers embrace the series before offering a more expanded wagering menu.
It would seem then, appropriately enough, that the future health of IndyCar betting, like all motor sport betting, is up to the bettor.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering Indycar betting, as well as sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online.
Sports Betting: Did You Have Two Left Feet With The Big Dance?
June 18, 2008
Like most gamblers, college basketball fans, particularly those who enjoy sports betting on the NCAA Men’s Tournament (who doesn’t?) would, understandably, much rather look ahead to the next bet than back at the last one. But savvy sports betting aficionados also understand that a review of previous actions, no matter how tedious and time-consuming, sometimes can yield substantial clues for the next time the bettor is presented with a similar situation.
A case in point is the much ballyhooed analysis comparing opening round seedings against the pointspread. Technical handicappers, those earnest folks who diligently study reams of data and results, crunching numbers in hope of uncovering a wagering pattern, probably are scratching their heads after this year’s games.
No. 16 seeds, which enjoyed a 14-10 pointspread edge over No. 1 seeds since 2002, only covered one of four matchups this season, and that, just barely, when Texas-Arlington, +25, lost by 24 points to Memphis, 87-63. The other three No. 16 seeds, Mount St. Mary’s (+31), Portland State (+23), and Mississippi Valley State (+29), all failed to cover against, respectively, North Carolina, Kansas and UCLA.
No. 15 seeds, which had notched a 15-9 against the pointspread (STS) edge versus No. 2 seeds since 2002, split four opening round contests as Belmont (+21) succeeded against Duke and American University (+20) beat the pointspread versus Tennessee but Maryland Baltimore County (+17) and Austin Peay (+18) came up short against Georgetown and Texas, respectively.
Alas, for technical bettors who respected history and went with the eight lowest seeded teams, the opening week of the Big Dance produced a 3-5 losing record against the pointspread.
But it wasn’t all bad news for the data devotees.
The strongest play historically, No. 7 seeds over No. 10 seeds, again held up well in 2008. The matchup, which had yielded a 17-7 pointspread advantage since 2002, went 3-1 this year as No. 7 seeds Miami (-1 1/2), Butler (-3 1/2), and West Virginia (-2) covered their numbers against St. Mary’s, South Alabama and Arizona, respectively. The other No. 7 seed, Gonzaga (pick �em) lost to Davidson.
Another historically strong play, No. 6 seeds over No. 11 seeds, also performed well in this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament opening round. The matchup, which had produced a 14-10 pointspread edge for No. 6 seeds since 2002, went 3-1 this year as Oklahoma (-2), Purdue (-2 1/2), and Marquette (-5) beat the pointspread against respective victims St. Joseph’s, Baylor and Kentucky. Only Southern Cal (-3), failed to live up to betting expectations, losing outright to Kansas State.
Since 2002, the 3-14, 4-13 and 5-12 opening round matchups have failed to yield significant pointspread differences, a betting trend which was repeated in two of the three pairings this year. No. 4 seeds, which were a combined 13-11 ATS coming into this year’s action, were 2-2 ATS. No. 5 seeds, which entered March Madness dead-even with No. 12 seeds at 11-11-2 ATS, left the opening round the same way was after a 2-2 ATS split.
Only No. 3 seeds broke the pattern. Third-seeded teams, which were a tepid 12-11-1 ATS versus No. 14 teams since 2002, surprised technical handicappers with a 4-0 pointspread season. Louisville (-13) beat the spread against Boise State, Xavier (-6) covered versus Georgia, Wisconsin (-11) rewarded favorite players against Cal State-Fullerton, and Stanford (-16 1/2) aced its pointspread test against Cornell.
So what have we learned? For starters in sports betting, college basketball betting in general, and NCAA Tournament Basketball betting in particular, like so many other sports, don’t always live up to past trends.
So, while technical handicapping may have its merits, its clearly no slam-dunk shortcut to riches and certainly no substitute for individual game analysis and handicapping that can lead to basketball betting success.
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online.
Sports And Sports Betting: You Can’t Make Up This Stuff
June 18, 2008
What is it about sports and sports betting that turn ordinary athletes, journalists, administrators and pundits into such quotable sources of information, wisdom, fun and absurdity?
A brief sampling from the first three months of the year:
“750 million.”
–Terry Elman, acting executive director of the Council of Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey, offering an estimate on how much money will be wagered in office pools on the 2008 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament
“1.7 billion.”
–John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., a Chicago-based placement firm, estimating how much money the 2008 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament will cost employers in lost productivity
“Get your vasectomy at Oregon Urology Institute the day before the Tournament starts. It’s snip city.”
–A promotion that urges men to get the medical procedure before the opening tip-off of the 2008 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The idea is that men should spend two to four days recovering from a vasectomy and by timing their surgery, they can do it in front of a TV screen watching the opening rounds of March Madness.
“It’s no wonder Isenhour lost his PGA Tour card and is now playing on the Nationwide Tour. Maybe he should concentrate more on making birdies instead of killing them.”
–Mike Bianchi, The Orlando Sentinel, after golfer Tripp Isenhour intentionally hit golf balls into a tree, killing a noisy hawk during the television taping of a golf instructional video
“This is classic 16th century punishment where you get your fingers cut off for stealing a penny.”
–Geoff Smith, president of Roush Fenway Racing, after NASCAR handed down a 100-point penalty to driver Carl Edwards for having the cover off his car’s oil tank in the UAW-Dodge 400 in Las Vegas, March 2, an aerodynamic advantage
“That’s the worst tire I’ve been on in my life in any professional form of racing. Look at when they exited Formula One and the IRL and CART and World of Outlaws, USAC, you name it, because they can’t compete, they can’t keep up, they don’t have the technology and they don’t have the people smart enough to build a tire. This was pathetic today.”
–The always combustible Tony Stewart, after finishing second in the Kobalt Tools 500 in Hampton, Ga., March 9, voicing his “discontent” with Goodyear
“If he does it another 400,000 times, we’ll have it all back.”
–Graham Sharpe, spokesperson for the William Hill Agency, one of the world’s top bookmakers, after an unidentified gambler, who turned a $1 bet into $1.97 million after correctly predicting the winners of eight straight races at various horse tracks, lost a $5 bet
“If Ralph Nader, who captured 2.7 percent of the popular vote in the 2000 election, is now referred to as a presidential candidate, why aren’t the Tampa Bay Rays, who accounted for 2.7 percent of the victories in Major League Baseball last season, being hailed as World Series candidates?”
–Dwight Perry, Seattle Times
“That’s one.”
–New Mariners ace Erik Bedard, telling journalists following a spring training game in Peoria, Arizona that he would answer only four questions, responding to a reporter’s query, “Why four?”
“His press corps is bigger than mine. And we both have trouble answering questions in English.”
–President George W. Bush, during the World Series champion Boston Red Sox’s visit to the White House, on Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka
“Did he like to bet on football games? Yeah, a lot of people do.”
–Denise McGee, widow Green Bay Packers receiver Max McGee
“I’ll be damned.”
This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering sports betting on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and all other major sports. The Greek is a must have sports betting and entertainment portal with one of the largest wagering menus available online.